You remember what happened next. A blown coverage by the 49ers left WR Tyreek Hill open for a 44-yard reception to convert that 3rd and 15. And all of a sudden, like one light turning on and the one right next to it shutting off, the Chiefs could do no wrong, while the 49ers collapsed like a house of cards. Three Kansas City touchdowns in a span of 5:01 later it was S Tyrann Mathieu (not 49ers CB Richard Sherman) and teammates celebrating under a confetti shower (photo above) after the Chiefs had won 31-20 for the franchise's first Super Bowl victory in 50 years.
I say we should have know that a Chiefs comeback was imminent because they already had come back from 10-point deficits in both of their playoff games before the Super Bowl. They also had won twice after trailing by 10 during the regular season. It was their M.O. Of course, in all of those other victories the Chiefs had caught up and/or taken the lead before the 1st half was over. This last comeback, waiting until late in the 4th quarter in the Super Bowl to do their thing, was cutting it a bit too close for comfort.
I wouldn't exactly describe it as bleak, but for the first 3 months of the season the Chiefs' Super Bowl chances certainly weren't looking very good. After a disturbing 35-32 road loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 10 their record stood at 6-4. I remember the stunned look on Coach Reid's face on the sideline (I'm sure he was pissed too, but he hides his anger well) after losing a game they had no business losing, a game they somehow didn't win despite dominating the Titans in total yards (530-371) and time of possession (37:52 - 22:08). And as the Chiefs hit their lowest point of the season, the New England Patriots (8-1) and Baltimore Ravens (7-2) were both riding high and looking formidable, so I figured the Chiefs were going to have to win on the road to get to Super Bowl 54.
The season had gotten off to an ominous beginning in Jacksonville. The Chiefs went on to whip the Jaguars, but only after Hill, the offense's top big play threat, was injured during the 1st quarter. And sadly that would be the last we'd see of Tyreek's dreads (left photo above, signing an autograph for an excited fan before the game). In fact, I had to start this post with the photo of Mathieu instead of the one of Hill celebrating on the sideline during the 4th quarter (right photo above) because Hill shed his dreads way back in September, sometime before the Week 3 home opener ..... dreads he started growing early during his 2016 rookie season and had finally gotten just long enough that you could see them outside of his helmet.
No sooner had Hill returned to action in Week 6 the season saw its life flash before its eyes when superstar QB Mahomes suffered what looked like a serious knee injury during the 1st half in Week 7. Thankfully the injury turned out to be not too serious, and he was back for the Week 10 loss to the Titans. After that the Chiefs finally got their act together - especially the defense, which improved significantly - and then, unexpectedly, everything just fell into place.
The Chiefs won their last 6 games in a row and got the help they needed to clinch the #2 seed for the AFC playoffs thanks to the Patriots' (a 16-point favorite) shocking loss at home to the 4-11 Miami Dolphins in Week 17. And then less than 24 hours before playing their first playoff game the Chiefs got even more help when the top seeded, 14-2 Ravens were eliminated at home by the Titans. Just like that, instead of having to win twice on the road the Chiefs took the field against the Houston Texans knowing they were two home wins away from the Super Bowl .....
..... And promptly fell behind, not just by 10 points, but by 24-0. Wow. Things were looking pretty bleak then too. Sure, there was a lot of time left, but I was afraid the defense wouldn't be able to get enough stops for the offense to catch up. O me of little faith. The defense came through with flying colors, getting nothing but stops; special teams contributed three huge plays; and the offense (after finally doing away with the dropped passes) became unstoppable, scoring touchdowns on 7 straight possessions - the first six during a 41-0 run - and cruising to a 51-31 victory.
And they were on their way.
I'm proud to announce that my crystal ball correctly predicted the Chiefs' victory in Super Bowl 54. I guess CB2 isn't so stupid after all. Its forecast for the regular season turned out to be a bit shaky, but it still was a big improvement over its disastrous picks for 2018. For example, CB2 earned an F grade (wrong by 4 or more games) for 14 teams in 2018 and just 9 teams in 2019. And it picked the correct division finish for 12 teams, compared to 8 in 2018. CB2 correctly picked the exact record for 2 teams - the Chiefs (12-4) and Los Angeles Rams (9-7).
So even though the 2019 report card for CB2 is hardly worth bragging about, it's not nearly as ugly as 2018's.
AFC EAST
predicted actual
1. NE 11-5 1. NE 12-4
2. NYJ 10-6 2. BUF 10-6
3. BUF 8-8 3. NYJ 7-9
4. MIA 4-12 4. MIA 5-11
CB/CB2's best grade for this division since 2011 and might have been better if Sam Darnold hadn't missed 3 games due to injury ..... GRADE: C ... (L11Y - the grade for each of the past 11 years, beginning with 2018 and going back to 2008: D+, C-, C-, D, D, D, C-, C, C-, B-, D)
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AFC NORTH
predicted actual
1. PIT 11-5 1. BAL 14-2
2. CLEV 10-6 2. PIT 8-8
3. BAL 9-7 3. CLEV 6-10
4. CIN 3-13 4. CIN 2-14
Got the easy Bengals pick but whiffed on other 3 teams ..... GRADE: D ... (L11Y: C, C, C+, D+, C, C, C+, B-, C-, C, F)
CB2 thought that Marquise Brown would lead all rookies with dreads with 6 TD. And it would have been right if Brown (shown after scoring 2 TD in Week 1 in left photo and at halftime in Week 16 in right photo) had kept his dreads all year. Marquise finished with 7 TD, 3 of which came before he cut off his dreads sometime during October. The rookie with dreads who scored the most TD was a different AFC North WR, Diontae Johnson of the Steelers, who had 6.
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AFC SOUTH
predicted actual
1. TENN 10-6 1. HOU 10-6
2. HOU 8-8 2. TENN 9-7
3. IND 6-10 3. IND 7-9
4. JAC 5-11 4. JAC 6-10
Bulletin: This was CB/CB2's best forecast ever for this division, the first time higher than a C ..... GRADE: B- ... (L11Y: D-, D+, D, C+, C, D+, D-, D, D-, D-, C-)
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AFC WEST
predicted actual
1. KC 12-4 1. KC 12-4
2. LAC 9-7 2. DEN 7-9
3. DEN 4-12 3. OAK 7-9
4. OAK 4-12 4. LAC 5-11
TIEBREAKER: Broncos finished in 2nd place due to better record than Raiders in conference games (DEN 6-6, OAK 5-7)
On the money Chiefs pick kept this from being a disaster ..... GRADE: D+ ... (L11Y: D-, C, C, C-, C, C, D, B, A-, B, B)
CB2 correctly picked that the Chiefs would be dethroned as the team with the most TD scored by players with dreads, but that was an easy pick. After leading the league with 33 TD by players with dreads in 2018, they had only 6 TD in 2019. Green Bay had the most in 2019 with 30.
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AFC TIEBREAKER
Chiefs clinched #2 seed due to head-to-head victory over Patriots (Week 14)
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NFC EAST
predicted actual
1. PHIL 13-3 1. PHIL 9-7
2. DAL 9-7 2. DAL 8-8
3. NYG 8-8 3. NYG 4-12
4. WASH 4-12 4. WASH 3-13
The only division CB2 got the order of finish exactly correct, although Eagles and Giants much worse than expected ..... GRADE: C ... (L11Y: C+, C, C, D, C+, D, D+, B-, D, C, C-)
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NFC NORTH
predicted actual
1. CHI 9-7 1. GB 13-3
2. GB 8-8 2. MIN 10-6
3. MINN 8-8 3. CHI 8-8
4. DET 7-9 4. DET 3-12-1
With only a +63 point differential for the season, Packers might have been the worst 13-3 team ever. CB2 had all 4 teams within 2 games of each other; instead all 4 teams finished with at least a 2-game gap between each other ..... GRADE: D+ ... (L11Y: D-, D, C, D, D+, C-, C-, B-, C, B, C-)
CB2 was correct in forecasting the Vikings would lead the league in rushing TD scored by players with dreads, although they had to share the title with the Packers. With Dalvin Cook (left photo above, scoring a 2-yard TD on 4th down late in the 3rd quarter in Week 10, putting the Vikings ahead to stay in their victory over the Cowboys) contributing 13 TD (3 more than the 10 that CB2 forecast), Vikings finished with 17 rushing TD (4 fewer than than 21 forecast).
Limited to 12 games due to a toe injury in Week 4, WR Davante Adams scored only 5 TD (the last of which in right photo above on a 20-yard reception against the Lions in Week 17), which was 9 fewer than the 14 forecast by CB2. However, CB2 was correct that the Packers would take the crown for the team with the most TD scored by players with dreads. With RB Aaron Jones contributing a league-leading 19 TD, the Packers finished with 30 TD by players with dreads, 2 more than the 28 forecast.
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NFC SOUTH
predicted actual
1. ATL 11-5 1. NO 13-3
2. NO 9-7 2. ATL 7-9
3. CAR 8-8 3. TB 7-9
4. TB 6-10 4. CAR 5-11
TIEBREAKER: Falcons finished in 2nd place due to better record than Buccaneers in division games (ATL 4-2, TB 2-4)
Weird Falcons got road wins over Saints and 49ers but still finished with losing record ..... GRADE: D ... (L11Y: B, C+, D+, C-, C, D, C-, D, B+, A, D)
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NFC WEST
actual predicted
1. SEA 12-4 1. SF 13-3
2. LAR 9-7 2. SEA 11-5
3. SF 7-9 3. LAR 9-7
4. ARIZ 4-12 4. ARIZ 5-10-1
Exasperating loss by Seahawks to 49ers (they were stopped less than a foot away from the goal line on the final play) in Week 17 cost CB2 an exact record and a division winner ..... GRADE: C ... (L11Y: F, D+, C, B-, B+, C, B+, D, D-, D, D-)
DEs Jadeveon Clowney (trying to knock down a pass by Teddy Bridgewater in Week 3 in left photo above) and Ziggy Ansah (#94 in left photo above) did not pressure the QB the way the Seahawks had hoped - and the way CB had predicted. They combined for only 5.5 sacks (Clowney 3, Ansah 2.5), way less than the 22 forecast by CB2. That being the case, the Seahawks were not by far the team with the most sacks by players with dreads, as CB2 also predicted. The Seahawks finished with 10 sacks by players with dreads. 12 teams finished with more, including the Panthers, who were the team that by far had the most with 36 by players with dreads.
CB2 also liked rookie RB Darrell Henderson (right photo above) to tie Marquise Brown for the most TD by a rookie with dreads. Unlike Brown, Henderson kept his dreads; but he was no factor on the Rams offense, touching the ball only 46 times all season and finishing with 0 TD. As mentioned earlier, Diontae Johnson was the rookie with dreads with the most TD with 6.
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NFC TIEBREAKERS
49ers clinched #1 seed due to head-to-head victories over Packers (Week 12) and Saints (Week 14)
Packers clinched #2 seed due to better record than Saints in conference games (GB 10-2, NO 9-3)
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DIVISION WINNERS
CB2 picked 3 out of 8 winners correctly and barely missed out on a 4th (NFC West) ..... GRADE: C- ... (L11Y: D, D, C-, D-, C-, C-, C, C-, D, C-, F)
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PLAYOFF TEAMS
AFC
predicted actual
1. KC 1. BAL
2. NE 2. KC
3. PIT 3. NE
4. TENN 4. HOU
5. NYJ 5. BUF
6. CLEV 6. TENN
NFC
predicted actual
1. PHIL 1. SF
2. SEA 2. GB
3. ATL 3. NO
4. CHI 4. PHIL
5. LAR 5. SEA
6. DAL 6. MINN
CB2 correctly picked 5 of the 12 teams to make the playoffs, one more than in 2018 ..... GRADE: C- ... (L11Y: D+, C-, C+, C-, B-, C, C, B, C-, B-, C-)
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SUPER BOWL
predicted: KC over DAL
actual: KC over SF
For the 3rd time in its 12 years of picks CB/CB2 predicted the correct winner of the Super Bowl, although this time it missed on the loser ..... GRADE: A- ... (L11Y: F, D, F, F, D, D, A, F, F, A-, F)
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OVERALL GRADE
Using my secret formula (lol), the final grade, which is an average of the 11 individual grades, comes out to a 1.82, which is a C (barely above a C-) ..... L11Y: D, C-, C-, D+, C, D+, C, C-, D+, B-, D
CB2 is now removed from double secret probation and earned its shot at another year of predictions.
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