BUST

The conclusion of Super Bowl 59 nearly 7 months ago actually had my thoughts turning to ..... baseball? Huh? The end of the game, I thought, needed to be punctuated by the phrase familiar to fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates, uttered by their former longtime announcer Lanny Frattare. Whether the game was a blowout or the outcome wasn't decided until the final pitch, after victory by the Pirates was secured Frattare would proclaim, "... and there was no doubt about it!" Well, after time expired in SB 59 a tape of Frattare's famous phrase would have been appropriate on the Fox telecast. Because there was no doubt - absolutely no doubt - about it after the Philadelphia Eagles were done stomping and romping all over the Kansas City Chiefs to pick up the franchise's 2nd Super Bowl victory ever and 5th NFL championship overall.

 Ever since they found out during the 2018 season that they had struck gold with their drafting of quarterback Patrick Mahomes a year earlier, the Chiefs have been in "Super Bowl or bust" mode. Prior to SB 59 the Chiefs had played in 4 of the preceding 5 Super Bowls, winning 3 of them. But there would be no winning this one. No first ever three-peat. No, this time it was BUST. In all caps. A flat-out, 100% BUST. Pay no attention to the final score, which was 40-22. This one was way worse than that. The Chiefs took one on the chin, got their ass kicked, got punched in the face, and whatever else your favorite cliche is - all in one game. Do pay attention to the score of 34-0, which was the Eagles' lead late in the 3rd quarter before they shifted into cruise control for the rest of the game. The photo above aptly depicts the "mood of the day" for the Chiefs throughout the 2nd half - a lot of long faces. This shot happens to include several of their players with dreads - Marquise Brown in the middle, with fellow WRs Juju Smith-Schuster (braids) and Xavier Worthy leaning forward on either side of him, and RBs Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt in a blur on the far right of the photo. 

Despite their (including playoffs) 17-2 record entering the game, the 2024 version of the Chiefs was hardly a juggernaut. They trailed in no fewer than a dozen of the games they won; and with a few different bounces of the ball every now and then they could very easily finished with a .500 record and not even made the playoffs. So I knew they already were in trouble facing an Eagles team fresh off a 55-23 slaughtering of the Washington Commanders in the NFC championship game. And a team bent on avenging their loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57. What I didn't know was just how much trouble. I mean, 34-0? Really? You could have won a lot of money if you had bet me the Chiefs would be shut out until the last half minute of the 3rd quarter. But they were; and heck, this one was over so early that the traditional Gatorade shower happened with still 2:52 remaining on the clock. That's WRs A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith drenching Coach Sirianni in photo above left and video on this link: x.com/AdamSchefter/status/1888787377499365458?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1888787377499365458%7Ctwgr%5E500541209b6d742f317fba3f8f4eae6fa8b650d6%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthelibertyline.com%2F2025%2F02%2F10%2Fnick-sirianni-gatorade-bath%2F

DT Jalen Carter (putting on the T-shirt in photo on right) had all zeroes on the stat sheet (except for 2 QB hits) in his 43 snaps but nevertheless was a key player in the dominating performance by the Eagles' D-line that turned the Chiefs' offense into mincemeat and made things a walk in the park for the Eagles and their fans. A few of the gory details .... the Chiefs got a 1st down on their first offensive snap of the game on an 11-yard reception by Smith-Schuster. And then did not pick up another 1st down until the 2nd half! That's right, on their next 19 snaps (their final 19 of the 1st half) the Chiefs gained all of 12 total yards, with Mahomes being sacked 3 times. After the Eagles settled for a field goal to make it 10-0 in the 2nd quarter, every Chiefs fan likely was rejoicing. Because the score was exactly 10-0. And, as every Chiefs fan knows, during the Mahomes era the Chiefs had come back to win every time (a total of about 10 times in all) they had trailed by a 10-0 score. So the Chiefs had the Eagles right where they wanted. 

Uh, no. Not this time. No sooner was the score 10-0 it was 17-0, as on the 3rd play of the Chiefs' next possession Mahomes threw an interception returned for a touchdown. Only Eagles fans were rejoicing then. Late in the 2nd another Mahomes INT set up a short TD drive, with Brown (photo on left, spending some time with the Vince Lombardi Trophy after the game) scoring on a 12-yard reception to make it 24-0. 

As great as Mahomes is he's no different than any other quarterback when you put constant pressure on him the way the Eagles did. Hurry him on almost every dropback, hit him a bunch of times and he too can be forced into making costly turnovers.

The Chiefs had the 2 INTs, 6 punts, and a turnover on downs on their first 9 possessions before finally scoring on Worthy's 24-yard reception that made it 34-6. The Chiefs' 3rd turnover, and the Eagles' 6th sack of Mahomes, a strip sack by DT Milton Williams (photo below on right), set up a FG that made it 40-6 midway through the 4th. 

Little would you have expected it when the score was 34-0, but the game ended up setting the record for the Super Bowl with the most touchdowns scored by players with dreads. After Brown and Worthy scored, the Chiefs tacked on a couple of TD in the final 3 minutes, with WR DeAndre Hopkins scoring on a 7-yard reception and Worthy getting his second of the game on a 50-yard reception, making the final 40-22. The 4 touchdowns by players with dreads surpasses the previous record of 3 set when these same two teams met in Super Bowl 57 (a much happier day in Chiefs Kingdom).

Not scoring a touchdown - and not doing much of anything else either - was Hunt; and I was particularly sad for him. Released by the Chiefs in 2018 (the year before they started winning Super Bowls) and banished to Cleveland for 5 seasons, Hunt was very happy to find himself in a Chiefs uniform in 2024 after the team welcomed him back. But .... finally making the first Super Bowl appearance of his career, he touched the ball only 4 times in the game (one of them in photo on left). The team's leading rusher during the regular season, Kareem finished SB 59 with 9 yards rushing on 3 carries and 1 catch for 5 yards, playing only 11 snaps. The Chiefs were too far behind to run the ball, so he never got a real chance to make any impact on the game. There's always 'next year', but Kareem is 30 years old now; so you can't help but think this likely was the only chance he'll ever have to play in a Super Bowl. After waiting so long, he must have been extremely disappointed for it to have turned out like this.

And so, the Chiefs did not make history by becoming the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. And so also, my crystal ball, CB2, was incorrect in predicting that the Chiefs would make history. It was close but no cigar for CB2 for the 2nd straight year. The Chiefs' failure in SB 59 follows the San Francisco 49ers' failure to win SB 58, making it 2 seasons in a row that CB2's pick to win the Super Bowl lost it instead. 

As for all the other games before the Super Bowl ..... well, the one thing you can say about CB2 is that it has attained remarkable consistency. It gets the same grade for the 4th straight year, although the total points used to figure the grade were a tiny bit better than 2023. In its 2024 forecast CB2 was better (but not great) at the number of teams whose record it predicted exactly right. Going into Week 18 CB2 was in position to get a whopping 9 teams exactly correct. It ended up settling for 5, just barely missing out on 3 others. Even so, the 5 exactly correct picks - for the Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Packers, and Saints - was the most ever. I think. I'm too lazy to go back and check all 16 previous years of predictions, but I can't remember my crystal balls ever getting as many as 5 teams right before. 

CB2 also picked the correct order of finish in 2 of the 8 divisions - the AFC North and AFC West - after getting none exactly right in 2023. And it correctly picked 8 of the 14 teams that would make the playoffs, after going just 6 for 14 in 2023. The number of teams for which CB2 got an F (for missing the mark by 4 games or more) was 8, the same as 2023. And CB2 picked the correct division placement for 13 teams, almost the same as the 12 it got right in the 2023 forecast. 

Here now is CB2's full report card for its 2024 forecast.

AFC EAST 

   predicted              actual

1. MIA 10-7         1. BUF 13-4 

2. NYJ 10-7        2. MIA 8-9

3. BUF 9-8          3. NYJ 5-12

4. NE 5-12          4. NE 4-13

Disappointing Dolphins and Jets help bring grade down to a tie for its worst ever for this division.

GRADE (for 2024): D

   Highest previous grade: B- (2009)

   Lowest previous grade: D (2020, 2015, 2014, 2013, and 2008)

   L5Y (grades for the last 5 years, started with 2023 and going back to 2019): C, C+, C, D, C 

The third time was the charm for CB2. Predicting for the 3rd straight year James Cook would become the Bills' first player with dreads to reach double figures in touchdowns scored, CB2 was finally right, as James finally broke through and in a big way in 2024. He finished the regular season with a whopping 18 TD scored (his 9th of the season in photo above vs. the Colts in Week 10), tied for second most in the entire league and 6 more than the 12 predicting by CB2. 

CB2 also had LB Quincy Williams (photo below, walking off in Week 7 at Pittsburgh after the Jets' 4th straight L dropped them to 2-5) finishing with more than the career high 139 tackles he had in 2023 and also scoring his 1st career TD. Neither happened. Williams finished with 116 tackles (second highest total of his career) and although he had 3 fumble recoveries, he had no TD.

And Jalen Ramsey of the Dolphins did not finish with a career high 6 INT, as forecast by CB2. He had only 2 TD, his fewest since 2020.

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AFC NORTH

   predicted               actual

1. BAL 12-5           1. BAL 12-5

2. PIT 10-7            2. PIT 10-7

3. CIN 10-7           3. CIN 9-8

4. CLEV 7-10        4. CLEV 3-14

Best grade ever for this division for either CB or CB2 . Would have nailed it if the Browns hadn't been so woeful.
 

GRADE: B

   Highest: B- (2022 and 2011), 

   Lowest: F (2008)

   L5Y: D, B-, D+, C+, D

 

CB2 said Najee Harris would score 8 TD for the 2nd straight season and lead the Steelers in TD for the 4th straight season. Close, but no on both. Harris (left photo, scoring his 4th of the season at Cincinnati in Week 14) finished with a career low 6 TD, and finished second on the team in TD. TE Pat Freiermuth led the Steelers with 7 TD in 2024.

CB2 also was incorrect in forecasting the Steelers would be the team with the highest percentage of their TD being scored by players with dreads. 16 of their 37 TD (43.2%) were by players with dreads. CB2 predicted at least 60%. 43.2 was good for 4th place in the league. The Raiders finished 1st at 73.3% (22 of 30).

CB2 was correct predicting Derrick Henry would reach double figures in TD for the 7th straight season and help the Ravens win the division title. However I don't recall CB2 saying anything about Henry cutting off his dreads, which happened during the Ravens bye in Week 14. Derrick scored 15 TD with dreads (including his 11th of the season at Cleveland in Week 8 in right photo) and 3 without, a total of 18 that tied him with James Cook for 2nd place in the league.

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AFC SOUTH

   predicted               actual

1. HOU 12-5           1. HOU 10-7

2. JAC 8-9              2. IND 8-9

3. IND 8-9              3. JAC 4-13

4. TENN 6-11         4. TENN 3-14

On-target Colts pick saves the day. Other three teams much worse than expected.

GRADE: C

   Highest: B- (2019)

   Lowest: D- (2018, 2012, 2010, 2009)

   L5Y: D, D, C-, C, B-

Things didn't go as nearly as smoothly for C.J. Stroud in 2024 as they did during his 2023 rookie season. CB2 was expecting even bigger things for Stroud in 2024, predicting he would have more than 4,000 passing yards for the 2nd straight season along with 30+ TD passes and be named league MVP. But instead C.J. (photo above) throwing under pressure during the Texans' upset home loss to the Titans in Week 12) dropped back to the pack, finishing 15th in the league with 3,727 yards passing and tied for 17th with 20 TD passes. He received no votes for MVP, of course. The award went to Bills QB Josh Allen. 

And CB2 whiffed completely in its pick of Colts WR Adonai Mitchell to score 9 TD and be the league's highest scoring rookie with dreads. Mitchell had at least a chance for a few touchdowns (including this play in Week 4 in left photo above, where a better throw from Joe Flacco would have resulted in a TD) during the season but came away empty handed, finishing with 0 TD on 23 receptions. Instead it was WR Brian Thomas of the division-rival Jaguars who stole the show. Thomas set the Jaguars' team record for TD receptions by a rookie when he made this 3-yard catch (right photo above) for his 7th of the season vs. the Jets in Week 15 and finished the season with 10 TD, the most for any rookie in the league (with dreads and without dreads). Xavier Worthy of the Chiefs was a close 2nd with 9.

CB2 predicted Calvin Ridley, in his first season with the Titans, would tie his career high with 10 TD. He did not, scoring only 5.

And CB2 had the Titans leading the league in TD receptions by players with dreads. They did not, instead finishing in a tie for 6th place with 9 TD catches by players with dreads. The Raiders were #1 in TD catches by players with dreads, with 7 different players combining for 14 TD receptions.

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AFC WEST

   predicted               actual

1. KC  13-4           1. KC 15-2

2. LAC 10-7          2. LAC 11-6

3. DEN 7-10         3. DEN 10-7

4. LV 6-11             4. LV 4-13

CB2 makes the easy call for Chiefs to win division title for 9th straight season and gets the order of finish exactly correct. But too far off on three of the teams to get a good grade.

GRADE: C+

   Highest: A- (2010)

   Lowest: D- (2018)

   L5Y: C, C-, D, C-, D+

It was one and done for Davante Adams and Isiah Pacheco, the players CB2 picked to lead the Raiders and Chiefs in touchdowns respectively. Adams had just 1 TD for the Raiders (left photo above, at Baltimore in Week 2) before being traded to the Jets after Week 6. He ended up with 8 TD receptions, 4 fewer than 12 predicted by CB2, a total according to CB2 that would be the most by any player with dreads. The 8 TD receptions tied Adams for 2nd place among players with dreads with Marvin Harrison Jr. of the Cardinals and Quentin Johnston of the Chargers. As mentioned earlier Brian Thomas finished 1st with 10.

Pacheco, the player CB2 said would be the league's highest scoring player with dreads with 17 TD, scored only once - in Week 1 (photo on right above) vs. the Ravens. He only played 7 games, missing 9 with a broken leg. Jahmyr Gibbs of the Lions was the player with dreads with the most TD with 20.

Even without the expected contributions from Adams and Pacheco there was no shortage of TD scored by players with dreads for the Chiefs and Raiders. CB2 had the Chiefs leading the league with at least 30 TD by players with dreads. Not quite, as they finished with 24 - leading the AFC but finishing 2nd in the NFL to the 28 scored by the Lions. And the Raiders nailed CB2's pick that they would have at least 20 TD by players with dreads. Although they scored only 30 TD all season, 22 of them were by players with dreads. 

And with the expected major contributions by the Chiefs and Raiders, CB2 was certain the AFC West would have at least a dozen more TD by players with dreads than any other division. True that, as the 64 TD by the AFC West's players with dreads in 2024 was 18 more than the runner up division, which was the AFC North with 46.

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AFC actual records 

BUF 13-4      BAL 12-5       HOU 10-7      KC 15-2

MIA 8-9         PIT 10-7         IND 8-9         LAC 11-6

NYJ 5-12      CIN 9-8          JAC 4-13       DEN 10-7

NE 4-13        CLEV 3-14    TENN 3-14     LV 4-13 

AFC TIEBREAKER 

Steelers clinched #6 seed due to head-to-head victory over Broncos (Week 2)

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NFC EAST

     predicted               actual

1. WASH 9-8          1. PHIL 14-3

2. PHIL 8-9             2. WASH 12-5

3. DAL 8-9              3. DAL 7-10

4. NYG 6-11           4. NYG 3-14 

A CB2 (and CB) specialty: team picked to miss the playoffs wins the Super Bowl (not the first time this has happened)

GRADE: D+

   Highest: B- (2011)

   Lowest: D- (2020)

   L5Y: C+, C, D+, D-, C

CB2 expected CeeDee Lamb to edge A.J. Brown as the division's highest scoring player with dreads, but it went the other way around. Picked to score 10 TD and lead the NFC East in TD by players with dreads for the 5th straight season, Lamb was slowed by a shoulder injury he suffered in Week 9 and finished with only 6 TD (all alone for his 5th of the season vs. the Bengals in Week 14 in photo on right), tying his career low set in 2021. Even so, those 6 TD had Lamb in the lead until Brown scored in Weeks 16 and 17 to finish with 7 and take the crown. Actually though Brown is not celebrating his crown as he carries the ball back to the bench (left photo) after scoring to give the Eagles a 34-7 lead over the Cowboys in Week 17. Instead, after initially heaving the ball into the crowd to celebrate, he needed to retrieve it from the crowd because it was the 1st career TD pass for QB Tanner McKee. Later, after the game, A.J. gave his signed jersey to the fan who gave him the ball back. Brown's 7 TD were 2 fewer than the 9 predicted by CB2.

As for CB2's other NFC East prediction .... off the mark. Noah Brown of the Commanders (no relation to A.J.), picked to finish with a career high 5 TD, scored only once - on the famous last-play-of-the-game Hail Mary to beat the Bears in Week 8.

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NFC NORTH     

     predicted               actual

1. GB 11-6             1. DET 15-2

2. DET 10-7           2. MINN 14-3

3. CHI 10-7            3. GB 11-6

4. MINN 6-11         4. CHI 5-12 

An A and 3 Fs, with the Vikings pick - a miss by 8 games - being CB2's worst of them all for this forecast. 

GRADE: D

   Highest: B (2021 and 2009)

   Lowest: F (2022)
   L5Y: C-, F. B, C+, D+

CB2 foresaw big things for Jahmyr Gibbs and Xavier McKinney, and the two turned in performances even better than expected. Gibbs (left photo, finishing off his 70-yard run vs. the Titans in Week 8) was picked to improve from 11 TD as a rookie in 2023 to 13 in 2024. Instead he improved to 20 (!), the most touchdowns of any player in the league.

CB2 expected McKinney, in his 1st season in a Packers uniform, to grab a career high 6 INT and finish tied with Jalen Ramsey for the most interceptions by any player with dreads. Instead he finished with a career high 8 INT and was the all-alone leader among players with dreads - and was just one away from tying for the league lead with Kerby Joseph of the Lions, who had 9.

CB2 also had Rashan Gary of Green Bay as the leader in sacks among all players with dreads with a career high 14. But although he led the Packers, he finished with only 7½, good for 5th place among players with dreads and tied for 36th place among all players. Nik Bonitto of the Broncos was the player with dreads with the most sacks, finishing with 13½.

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NFC SOUTH

     predicted               actual

1. ATL 9-8               1. TB 10-7

2. TB 7-10               2. ATL 8-9

3. NO 5-12              3. CAR 5-12

4. CAR 3-14           4. NO 5-12

TIEBREAKER: Panthers clinched 3rd place due to better strength of victory than Saints (CAR 28 wins by teams they defeated, NO 26 wins).

CB2 still furious (and so am I) over brain-dead clock management by Coach Morris in Falcons' crucial Week 17 loss to Commanders - a loss that cost CB2 one more correct division winner picked, one more correct playoff team picked, and one more exact division order of finish picked. (Assuming, of course, that had the Falcons beaten the Commanders they would also have beaten the Panthers in Week 18 to take the crown.) Thanks, Raheem.

GRADE: C

   Highest: A (2009)

   Lowest: D (2020, 2019, 2013, 2011, 2008)

   L5Y: D+, C, B, D, D

Bijan Robinson certainly did his part to try to help the Falcons win the division, finishing 3rd in the league with 1,456 yards rushing and tied for 7th in TD scored. He ended with 15 TD (that's his 8th of the season in photo on right, giving the Falcons a 7-0 lead over the Chargers in Week 13), the exact number CB2 said he would. But those 15 did not lead the NFC as CB2 predicted, as Jahmyr Gibbs did him 5 better with 20.

Picked by CB2 to finish with a career high 10½ sacks and reach double figures for the first time in his career, Jadeveon Clowney had a mostly quiet season in his 1st season in a Panthers uniform. He ended up with 5½ sacks, including this one (left photo) of Patrick Mahomes he shared with DT DeShawn Williams in Week 12.

CB2 also made a prediction for Buccaneers RB Rachaad White, unaware that he was about to cut off his dreads. White finished with 613 yards rushing and tied his career high with 9 TD, both short of the career-high totals of 1,000+ yards rushing and 10 TD forecast.

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NFC WEST 

     predicted               actual

1. SEA 12-5             1. LAR 10-7

2. LAR 11-6             2. SEA 10-7

3. SF 9-8                 3. ARIZ 8-9

4. ARIZ 5-12           4. SF 6-11

TIEBREAKER: Rams clinched 1st place due to better strength of victory than Seahawks (LAR 75 wins by teams they defeated, SEA 72 wins)

Annual Super Bowl loser's malaise hit 49ers even harder than expected. CB2 lamenting and blaming bad home loss by Seahawks to Giants in Week 5 for costing it one more correct division winner picked.

CB2 nailed its picks that Marvin Harrison Jr. would have the most touchdowns scored by any NFC rookie with dreads as well as any NFC West player with dreads. He scored 8 TD (including #6 of the season vs. the Jets in Week 10 in right photo), the exact number forecast. Harrison went unopposed for the rookie crown, as no other NFC rookie with dreads scored in 2024. Marvin, of course, finished 2 behind for league rookie honors, as Brian Thomas of the AFC Jaguars had 10 TD. As for NFC West players with dreads, the 8 TD edged out the career high 7 scored by Demarcus Robinson for the Rams. But Harrison was far short of the 1,200+ receiving yards expected, as he finished with 885.

CB2 struck out on its prediction of Rayshawn Jenkins finishing with a career high 4 INT for the Seahawks and making the Pro Bowl for the first time. Jenkins did not have any interceptions, but at least he did have one very nice highlight, scoring on a 102-yard fumble return (left photo) in the loss to the Giants. 

CB2 correctly predicted that Laviska Shenault would take a kickoff return to the house for the first time in his NFL career. He did so for the Seahawks in Week 6. But unfortunately it was his only TD of the season, 4 fewer than the career high 5 forecast. 

And CB2 said Rams rookie Jordan Whittington would score 5 TD; but he most definitely did not, finishing with 16 first downs on his 24 touches from scrimmage but 0 TD.

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NFC actual records

PHIL 14-3         DET 15-2       TB 10-7           LAR 10-7

WASH 12-5      MINN 14-3     ATL 8-9           SEA 10-7

DAL 7-10         GB 11-6          CAR 5-12        ARIZ 8-9

NYG 3-14        CHI 5-12        NO 5-12           SF 6-11

NFC TIEBREAKER

Buccaneers clinched #3 seed due to better record than Rams in games vs. conference opponents (TB 8-4, LAR 6-6).

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DIVISION WINNERS

3 of 8 division winners picked correctly

GRADE: C-

   Highest: B- (2021)

   Lowest: F (2008)

   L5Y: C-, C, B-, C-, C-

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PLAYOFF TEAMS

AFC

predicted    actual

1. KC        1. KC

2. HOU     2. BUF

3. BAL      3. BAL

4. MIA      4. HOU

5. PIT        5. LAC

6. NYJ      6. PIT

7. CIN      7. DEN

NFC

predicted     actual

1. SEA        1. DET

2. GB          2. PHIL

3. ATL        3. TB

4. WASH    4. LAR

5. LAR       5. MINN

6. DET       6. WASH

7. CHI        7. GB 

8 of 14 teams picked correctly 

GRADE: C+

   Highest: B (2011)

   Lowest: D+ (2018)

   L5Y: C-, B-, C, B-, C-

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SUPER BOWL

• predicted: KC over LAR 28-26
• actual: PHIL over KC 40-22

GRADE: D

   Highest: A (2012)

   Lowest: F (2022, 2021, 2018, 2016, 2015, 2011, 2010, and 2008)

   L5Y: D, F, F, F, A-

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OVERALL GRADE

The sum of the 11 grades is 18.79 points, and that averages out to 1.71. So, a C- it is again, for the 4th year in a row. Maybe if the Falcons hadn't screwed up the grade could have been a C (my range for a C begins at 1.75).

GRADE: C-

   Highest: B- (2009)

   Lowest: D (2018 and 2008)

   L5Y: C-, C-, C-, D+, C