The confetti had barely stopped falling at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas 7 months ago, after the Kansas City Chiefs had just become the NFL's first repeat champion in 19 years with their thrilling 25-22 overtime victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58, when thoughts began to turn to the most obvious question: Can the Chiefs do it again? Can they become the first team ever to win 3 Super Bowls in a row?
History says that even though the Chiefs are favored, you'd be throwing your money away if you bet on them to win it again. But CB2 is saying let history be damned, because the Chiefs will indeed be lifting the Vince Lombardi trophy for the 3rd consecutive season - just as QB Patrick Mahomes was 7 months ago (photo above) - after their victory in Super Bowl 59 at New Orleans next February.
Although the Chiefs, if successful, would be the first to win 3 Super Bowls in a row, they would not be the first to win 3 NFL championships in a row. But even before the Super Bowl era began in the 1966 season the three-peat was a tough nut to crack.
For the first decade or so of its existence the NFL, which opened for business in the year 1920, defined its "champion" as the team that had the best record during the season. There were no playoffs. And since teams played unequal schedules with unequal numbers of games played, there often was disagreement about which team truly was the champion. Finally, in 1933 the league's teams were divided into two divisions, and thus began the era of the season-ending, winner-take-all game between the division winners to determine an undisputed champion.
And in the NFL's 91 seasons since 1933 do you know how many times a team has won 3 championship games in a row? Well, you don't even need to be good at arithmetic to figure it out. If you can count to 1, you're good. That's right, in 91 seasons of championship games - including the last 58 in which the championship game has been better know as the Super Bowl - only ONE time did the trophy go to a team winning it for a 3rd consecutive season.
Oh, there have been many who have tried. The first of them was the Chicago Bears. Champions in 1940 and 1941, the Bears in 1942 outscored their opponents 376-84 in an undefeated 11-0 regular season, including 4 shutouts in a span of 5 games late in the season. But in the title game the Washington Redskins gained the ultimate revenge, defeating the Bears 14-6 and spoiling their perfect season on the same field (in DC) the Bears had slaughtered them 73-0 in the title game 2 years earlier. We should have known right then that this three-peat thing was going to be something that just wasn't meant to be.
7 more teams in the Super Bowl era have tried to duplicate the Packers' feat, and all have failed. Most notable among those 7 were the Miami Dolphins in 1974, who went 11-3 but lost on the road to the Raiders 28-26 in the 1st round of the playoffs in what remains probably their most bitter defeat in franchise history. And also the 49ers in 1990, who were 14-2 during the regular season and seemingly were headed back to their 3rd straight Super Bowl until a lost fumble with less than 3 minutes to play in the NFC championship game (in San Francisco) gave the Giants the ball and a chance; and the Giants ended up winning the game without scoring a touchdown, kicking their 5th field goal of the game on the last play of the game to win 15-13. The Giants went on to beat the Buffalo Bills in Super Bowl 25.
Which brings us to today, with the 2024 season being the first time since 2005 that a team has had a chance to go for the three-peat. And you ask .... why does CB2 think the Chiefs will be making history this season? Why will they be the first to win 3 straight Super Bowls, when all the others that tried failed? After all, CB2 is almost always a 100% believer in history repeating itself. And the only answer I can give you is this: the usual suspects.
The NFL Network recently broadcast its annual series listing the top 100 players in the league. And in this year's edition three of the players that are ranked in the top 10 play for the Chiefs: Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, and DT Chris Jones. Jones (30 years old) and Mahomes (soon to be 29) are still in their prime. Kelce, who will be 35 in October, "slumped" a bit last season (if you can call it that), finishing with only 93 catches for 984 yards. So yeah, he's past his prime; but he's still pretty good and he's still better than all the other tight ends. And when you have 3 players who are arguably the best in the league at their position - especially when one of them is a quarterback - well, it's no wonder the Chiefs are about to win their 4th championship in the last 6 years.
And let's not forget about Coach Reid. In 2012 the Chiefs finished tied for the worst record in the league, 2-14. And in Philadelphia after the Eagles finished 4-12 that same season, their worst record in the 14 seasons Reid had coached them, the Eagles informed him his services would no longer be needed. 4 days later he was hired by the Chiefs, and in his 11 seasons in Kansas City he has led the Chiefs to a winning record every year. The only season of those 11 in which they missed the playoffs was also the only season they haven't won at least 10 games, when they finished 9-7 in 2014. So yeah, in addition to having three of the best players in the league, the Chiefs have a Hall of Fame coach too.
As for the rest of its predictions .....
Instead of learning from last year's mistakes CB2 is doubling down on them, once again picking the Jets, Bengals, Bears, Falcons, and Seahawks to make the playoffs - after they all missed the playoffs last season and made it look like an idiot. According to CB2 the Jets, Bengals, and Steelers will claim the 3 AFC Wild Card berths on tiebreakers (I think I figured them out right), leaving the Bills and Chargers on the outside looking in after losing to the lowly Patriots and Raiders (respectively) in massive Week 18 upsets. CB2 has the 4th seeded Dolphins picking up their first 2 postseason victories in 24 years before losing in Kansas City in the AFC title game.
Over in the NFC .... Many of the experts still believe the 49ers and Lions are still the best teams in the conference and/or that the Eagles will bounce back strong after last year's disastrous finish. But not CB2. With the 49ers having lost the Super Bowl last season, CB2 says that makes them prime candidates to struggle mightily this season. The Eagles? CB2 says they haven't - and won't - figure out what ailed them last year and will finish with a losing record. Ditto the Cowboys, who are ineligible to win the NFC East (because they won it last year). CB2 sees the Seahawks taking the NFC West thanks to a highly controversial Week 18 road win over the Rams.
CB2 is also going against the grain in forecasting that both of the first 2 players picked in the 2024 Draft, QB Caleb Williams and QB Jayden Daniels, will play starring roles in leading the Bears and Commanders (respectively) to the playoffs as rookies. Normally when quarterbacks go 1-2 to start a Draft, only one of them turns into a star while the other one busts. Not this time, so says CB2. Also, the Falcons, with RB Bijan Robinson leading all NFC players with dreads in TD scored, will finish 1st in the NFC South; the Packers will emerge as the victors of a thrilling 3-way race in the NFC North; and the Rams, fueled by their highly controversial defeat in Week 18, will make it to the conference championship game in Seattle and gain their revenge on the Seahawks, before falling to the Chiefs Super Bowl 59.
In last September's post titled "Gold Touch" CB2 - making all of its selections before the start of the season - correctly predicted the winner in 165 of the 272 games in the 2023 regular season - a win percentage of .607. That was a significant increase of 6 over the 159 correct picks from its 2022 forecast. Does CB2 have another 6-win improvement in it? Let's find out now. In the two photos below are scanned sheets with the picks for all of this season's games. Then after that, as usual we'll summarize all of those W's and L's - one division at a time.
As always, anything you see in italics are the exact words concocted by CB2.
AFC EAST
- MIA 10-7
- NYJ 10-7
- BUF 9-8
- NE 5-12
Hmm, you're picking the Dolphins, who haven't won this division in 16 years?!
CB2: Every dog has its day.
CB2: Needing a victory at Foxborough in Week 18 to clinch playoff berth, Bills struggle vs. Patriots but take 20-10 lead late as James Cook takes screen pass 28 yards to the house with 4:04 to play. But then Joe Milton enters the game to make his NFL debut and throws 2 TD passes to K.J. Osborn, the second one a 19-yarder with :02 on the clock to give Patriots improbable 23-20 victory that leaves Bills' hopes hanging in the balance. Having clinched division crown in Week 17 via Bills' loss to Jets, Dolphins play their starters anyway at MetLife and trail Jets 24-20 but are driving in the red zone in final minute when pass intended for Tyreek Hill is deflected by Brandin Echols and picked off by Quincy Williams, who returns it 95 yards to the house for his 1st career TD with :26 to play to give Jets 31-20 victory that eliminates Bills from contention and sends Jets to playoffs for first time in 14 years.
CB2 also has me thinking of the lyrics from that old Jimmy Cliff song .... "... you must try, try and try, try and try. You'll succeed at last" .... as it is AGAIN (for the 3rd straight year) predicting James Cook to become the first Bills player with dreads to hit reach double figures in TD scored in a single season, finishing this season with 12 TD. And CB2 also has Jalen Ramsey of the Dolphins to finish tied for the most interceptions by any player with dreads with a career high 6 INT.
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AFC NORTH
- BAL 12-5
- PIT 10-7
- CIN 10-7
- CLEV 7-10
CB2: Needing a Week 18 win at Pittsburgh to keep playoff hopes alive, Bengals take 21-0 lead over Steelers at halftime. But touchdowns by Najee Harris, MyCole Pruitt, and George Pickens - all in 4th quarter - tie game at 21, and Steelers are driving near FG range in final minute when Justin Fields fumbles ball on sack by rookie McKinnley Jackson, and rookie Daijahn Anthony scoops up fumble and returns it 72 yards for TD to give Bengals lead with :33 on clock. Cordarrelle Patterson then returns ensuing kickoff 107 yards to the house, but the TD is nullified by holding penalty, and Bengals hang on for 27-21 victory. And with the losses by Bills (moments later) and Chargers (later in day), Bengals secure final AFC playoff berth.
And CB2 says that Derrick Henry (photo below), in his 1st season not in a Titans uniform, will reach double figures in TD for his 7th straight season (no exact number was given) as he helps the Ravens take the division title.
AFC SOUTH
- HOU 12-5
- JAC 8-9
- IND 8-9
- TENN 6-11
CB2: C.J. Stroud has his 3rd 400-yard passing game of season and throws 5th TD pass of the day in Week 17 on a 27-yarder to Tank Dell with 3 seconds remaining as Texans win 37-36 Christmas Day thriller over Ravens to clinch #2 seed for AFC playoffs.
CB2 is confident that it'll be 2nd round pick Adonai Mitchell of the Colts (photo below, celebrating his TD in preseason Week 3) - not any of the three WRs with dreads picked in the 1st round of the Draft - who will be the league's highest-scoring rookie with dreads, as he finishes with 9 TD.
CB2 also predicts that Calvin Ridley, in his first season in a Titans uniform, will tie his career high with 10 TD as he helps the Titans lead the league in TD receptions by players with dreads.
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CB2 expects Davante Adams (left photo), who had only 8 TD last season, to return to his usual place at the top of the list of the league's players with dreads in TD catches, as he has 12 TD catches in 2024, his 7th career season in double figures. CB2 also thinks the Raiders as a team will have at least 20 TD scored by players with dreads ....
AFC WEST
- KC 13-4
- LAC 10-7
- DEN 7-10
- LV 6-11
But that'll be nothing compared to the Chiefs. CB2 has the Chiefs romping to the team crown for the most TD scored by players with dreads. According to CB2, Isiah Pacheco (right photo, signing autographs at training camp practice on July 26) will be the league's top-scoring player with dreads with 17 TD and the Chiefs as a team will top the 30 mark in TD by players with dreads. With the Chiefs and Raiders leading the way, CB2 has the AFC West as the highest scoring division in TD by players with dreads by at least a dozen more TD than the next closest division.
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NFC EAST
- WASH 9-8
- PHIL 8-9
- DAL 8-9
- NYG 6-11
Mercy, CB2. I can see the Cowboys with a losing record. But the Eagles, with all that talent, how are they not going to win this division?
CB2: You'll see.
Wow, that's all you got, huh? O.K. But if the Eagles go 13-4 will all that talent, you might be out of a job.
CB2: With 3 teams tied for 1st place at 8-8 entering Week 18, Cowboys need to win and have Eagles lose to make playoffs and get all the help they need. With game at Philly tied in final minute, Deonte Banks intercepts Jalen Hurts and returns it 25 yards and into FG range; and on next play Eric Gray scampers 20 yards for his 1st career TD with 14 seconds remaining to give Giants 26-19 upset that eliminates Eagles from playoff contention. Moments later, with Cowboys fans ready to celebrate, Jayden Daniels shocks and silences AT&T Stadium crowd with perfect 50-yard strike to former Cowboy Noah Brown for TD on 4th and 19 with 28 seconds remaining to give Commanders 24-23 lead. Then on final play of game kicker Brandon Aubrey's would-be game-winning 71-yard FG attempt is barely short, bouncing off crossbar, eliminating Cowboys from playoff race and sending Commanders to playoffs as division champ.
And CB2 also predicts that the TD by Noah Brown in Week 18 that breaks the hearts of Cowboys fans everywhere will be his career high 5th TD of the season, with the 5 equaling his total from the first 6 seasons of his career.
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NFC NORTH
- GB 11-6
- DET 10-7
- CHI 10-7
- MINN 6-11
CB2: In Week 18 winner-take-all battle for division title in snowstorm at Lambeau Field on Sunday night Packers prevail over Bears in mistake-filled 4th quarter. Tremaine Edmunds gives Bears 17-10 lead midway through 4th on 49-yard scoop and score off of a fumble forced by Terell Smith. But Packers pull even with 2:52 remaining as Rashan Gary sacks Caleb Williams, causing fumble that is recovered and returned 20 yards for a TD by rookie Javon Bullard. Then in closing seconds, with Bears closing in on FG range, Gary hits Williams as he attempts pass on 3rd and 7 and pass is intercepted by Xavier McKinney, who returns it 67 yards to the house with :29 on the clock to give Packers division-clinching 24-17 victory.
CB2 also has Jahmyr Gibbs of the Lions (photo above) reaching double figures in TD for the 2nd straight season, improving from 11 TD as a rookie in 2023 to 13 TD this season.
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NFC SOUTH
- ATL 9-8
- TB 7-10
- NO 5-12
- CAR 3-14
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NFC WEST
- SEA 12-5
- LAR 11-6
- SF 9-8
- ARIZ 5-12
CB2: They're the Super Bowl losers. Something always happens to the Super Bowl losers.
You've got a point there.
CB2: Controversy reigns at SoFi in Week 18 thriller between Seahawks and Rams for division title. With Rams leading by 1 near end of 1st half, Matthew Stafford hits Tutu Atwell for apparent 5-yard TD catch with :03 on clock. But play is reviewed and it is determined the play clock expired barely before ball was snapped, so the TD is nullified and Rams are penalized 5 yards. 2 plays later Rams settle for FG and 13-9 halftime lead. Then with 7 seconds remaining 4th quarter and Rams still ahead by 4 at 23-19, Geno Smith avoids sack then heaves Hail Mary from midfield into back of end zone, and ball, after deflecting off several players, ends up in hands of Jaxon Smith-Njigba for game-winning, division-clinching TD. Play is reviewed and upheld, and Seahawks leave field wildly celebrating improbable 25-23 win. But shortly after game it is noticed that on the final play when the pass was deflected, it first bounced off the helmet of DK Metcalf, whose foot had barely touched the back line of the end zone before he leaped for the ball, meaning he should have been called for illegal touching penalty and the TD should have been nullified and the Rams should have won. But since it went undetected by both the game officials and replay officials, the mistake stands, the touchdown stands, and Seahawks take division crown and the #1 seed for the NFC playoffs.
CB2 expects the players with long dreads wearing jersey numbers 1 and 2 for the Seahawks will be big contributors in their march to the division title. CB2 has Rayshawn Jenkins (#2) picking off a career high 4 passes and being named to his 1st Pro Bowl in his 1st season in a Seahawks uniform. And CB2 has Laviska Shenault (#1) (who during his career has been scoring touchdowns only in even-numbered years) finishing with a career high 5 TD, including his 1st career kickoff return to the house.
CB2 is predicting that Rams 6th round rookie Jordan Whittington, although he won't make anywhere near the same impact that rookie WR Puka Nacua did last year, nevertheless will be a solid contributor and finish with 5 TD.
And CB2 is confident that Cardinals rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. (right photo), the first player with dreads selected in the 2024 Draft, will have an excellent debut season, finishing with over 1,200 receiving yards and 8 TD, with the 8 TD leading all NFC rookies with dreads but finishing 1 behind Adonai Mitchell for the lead among all rookies with dreads. And with Kenneth Walker and Brandon Aiyuk tragically both cutting off their dreads, CB2 says Harrison will have no problem being the division's highest scoring player with dreads.
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AFC predicted records
MIA 10-7 BAL 12-5 HOU 12-5 KC 13-4
NYJ 10-7 PIT 10-7 JAC 8-9 LAC 10-7
BUF 9-8 CIN 10-7 IND 8-9 DEN 7-10
NE 5-12 CLEV 7-10 TENN 6-11 LV 6-11
AFC TIEBREAKERS
- Texans clinch #2 seed due to head-to-head victory over Ravens (Week 17)
- Steelers clinch #5 seed due to head-to-head victories over Chargers (Week 3) and Jets (Week 7)
- Jets clinch #6 seed due to better record than Bengals and Chargers in games vs. conference opponents (NYJ 7-5, CIN 6-6, LAC 5-7)
- Bengals clinch #7 seed due to head-to-head victory over Chargers (Week 11)
NFC predicted records
WASH 9-8 GB 11-6 ATL 9-8 SEA 12-5
PHIL 8-9 DET 10-7 TB 7-10 LAR 11-6
DAL 8-9 CHI 10-7 NO 5-12 SF 9-8
NYG 6-11 MINN 6-11 CAR 3-14 ARIZ 5-12
NFC TIEBREAKER
- Falcons clinch #3 seed due to head-to-head victory over Commanders (Week 17)
PLAYOFFS
ROUND 1
- HOU over CIN
- NYJ over BAL
- MIA over PIT
- CHI over GB
- DET over ATL
- LAR over WASH
- KC over NYJ
- MIA over HOU
- SEA over CHI
- LAR over DET
- KC over MIA
- LAR over SEA
- KC 28 LAR 26 (MVP: Isiah Pacheco)
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As usual there are many changes in the NFL house of dread since last season ended. Many changes in uniforms, many changes with the dreads. Most disappointingly - as mentioned earlier - are that Anthony Richardson, Brandon Aiyuk, and Kenneth Walker no longer have dreads. Argh! But it's no use crying over spilled milk.
And as usual I haven't figured out all of the changes yet, and I'm not even going to try until much later in the season. So, the rest of this post will not be done until ..... who knows, probably December at the earliest. But if you are a long-time follower of this blog, you're used to the delays by now. Until then, enjoy the season!
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