Close Only Counts .....

How does that old saying go? Right. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. Or something like that. Maybe it counts in curling and darts too. But close certainly does not count for anything in the NFL. Being close in the NFL means nothing but frustration and disappointment for teams and a whole lot of heartbreak and heartburn for their fans. Just ask the San Francisco 49ers.

Once upon a time the Buffalo Bills were the NFL's poster child for coming close. You can't get much closer than losing the Super Bowl .... 4 years in a row. But that was a long time ago. And although the Bills still give their fans plenty of heartbreak nowadays, you'd have to say there's a new sheriff in town when it comes to disappointing endings. And that sheriff's name is, of course, the 49ers.

Four final 4 appearances in the last 5 years for the 49ers and not a single Vince Lombardi Trophy to show for them. Back-to-back NFC championship game losses in 2021-22 sandwiched in between Super Bowl losses to the Kansas City Chiefs in 2019 and 2023. And all of those losses leaving the 49er faithful wondering what might have been (or even what should have been). And the latest loss, in which the 49ers were on the short end of a 25-22 final score in Super Bowl 58 last February at Las Vegas, probably brought them to the height of their exasperation. It at least left their players stunned and in disbelief, with the glum faces of WRs (left to right in photo above) Ray-Ray McCloud (#3), Deebo Samuel (#19), and Chris Conley (#84) being a typical reaction during the confetti shower that fell shortly after the Chiefs scored a touchdown in overtime to end the game.

To use tennis lingo ... the 49ers held match point - not once but twice - in Super Bowl 58. Win the play and the title would be theirs. But on both plays they failed to get the job done, failed to close out the Chiefs. And sure enough that failure came right back and bit them in the ass. It's something they're going to have to live with for the rest of their lives.

The first of the two plays wasn't actually a true match point. Had they been successful the 49ers still would have had a bit more to do; but certainly had they been successful their win probability would have gone way up. The game was tied at 16 late in the 4th quarter and the 49ers had the ball for a crucial 3rd and 5 at the KC 35-yard line on the first play after the 2-minute warning. Get the conversion there and not only do they keep possession, they have a very real chance of running the clock all the way down and kicking a field goal and winning the game without the Chiefs ever getting the ball back. But, as we all know, it didn't happen. The Chiefs, recognizing the seriousness of their predicament, blitzed QB Brock Purdy, and his pass was broken up before it had a chance to get to the intended receiver. Then instead of rolling the dice and going for it on 4th and 5, the 49ers kicked a FG to take the lead ... but with still 1 minute 53 seconds remaining on the clock. And with that much time it seemingly was only a matter of how the Chiefs would score on their ensuing possession, not if. Would they score a touchdown and win? Or would it be a field goal to send the game into overtime?

With match point #1 an opportunity missed, the 49ers had one more - and last - chance to finish the Chiefs in OT. And this chance absolutely was a true match point. After the 49ers settled for a short field goal (the 7th FG of the game for the two teams combined) on the opening possession of overtime to take the lead again, it was on their defense to get the stop that would end the game. Not a comfortable reality for 49ers fans with the way the Chiefs were moving the ball in the 2nd half. But it was "so far so good" after the Chiefs' first three plays gained only 9 yards and left them facing a 4th and 1 from their own 34.

Opportunity was knocking again, and again the 49ers did not answer. QB Patrick Mahomes easily converted the 4th down with an 8-yard run on an option keeper, and just that quickly match point #2 came and went too. And if you're a 49ers fan, you probably had a sinking feeling there wasn't going to be a match point #3.

There wasn't, of course, and it had to be agonizing watching the Chiefs move down the field little by little heading for the inevitable game-winning touchdown - which finally came on the 13th play of the drive and was scored by WR Mecole Hardman (photo on left above) on a 3-yard reception on 1st and goal. Hardman, who spent the first 4 years of his career with the Chiefs after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2019, wasn't much of a factor when the Chiefs beat the 49ers in Super Bowl 54. And after the first 6 weeks of the 2023 season he didn't figure to be anywhere near Super Bowl 58. Hardman had signed as a free agent with the New York Jets during the offseason and was at least partly responsible for their struggling offense while he was there. 

But after a disastrous first 6 weeks in a Jets uniform - in which he played only 28 snaps on offense and had all of 1 catch for all of 6 yards - he was traded back to the Chiefs. And, like magic, his season finished with him joyously jumping into the arms of Mahomes (photo on right), while LB Fred Warner, who was on the field for all 79 snaps for the 49ers' defense, headed gloomily off the field with the 2nd Super Bowl loss of his career.

While 49ers fans had to deal with the defeat - and face the reality of going (and likely struggling) through 2024 as the Super Bowl loser - for Chiefs fans (including yours truly) it was more of the same, more of "how sweet it is!" This one made it 2 championships in a row and 3 in the last 5 years. WR Richie James, one of 10 Chiefs players with dreads who played in the game, enjoyed some of that sweetness, as the Vince Lombardi Trophy-shaped confetti falls on him after the game (photo on left below). Ironically James was in a 49ers uniform in Super Bowl 54. And also ironically he signed with the Chiefs during the offseason a few weeks after they lost Hardman, essentially to take his place. He didn't do much in Super Bowl 58, but he's not going to care about that once he gets his ring.

Although this one had the same ending for the Chiefs, the journey was quite a bit different this time. I mean, they often looked more like pretenders than contenders during a regular season in which they lost 6 games (the most since Mahomes became their starting QB) and, in fact, beat themselves several times with their own blunders and stupid mistakes. But they righted the ship when the playoffs began; and even though for the first time in the Mahomes era they had to play playoff games on the road, they made it back to the promised land, winning at Buffalo and Baltimore before defeating the 49ers.

One other thing that was different about this Chiefs' win over the 49ers was that it was not forecast by my crystal ball, CB2. When the Chiefs won Super Bowl 54 it fulfilled CB2's prediction of a Chiefs' title for the 2019 season. But not so this time. According to CB2, 2023 was going to be the 49ers' year. That's right, those 2 match points held by the 49ers were also held by CB2. One play away from what would have been the 4th correct Super Bowl winner predicted by my crystal balls (CB before CB2) in their 16 seasons of forecasts. Guess that 4th one will have to come some other time. 

I gave CB2 a grade of "D" for its Super Bowl pick. Not an "F" because at least the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl. And not the "A-" I would have given it had they beaten the Chiefs. To get a top grade of "A" the 49ers would need to have beaten the Jets, but as we all know the Jets became non-contenders on their very first possession of the season - no, not because Hardman was on the team but rather because they lost their starting quarterback due to injury.   

As for CB2's other picks ..... it was the usual story of some good, more bad. CB2 didn't get the exact order of finish correct in any of the 8 divisions and picked the correct division ranking for only 12 of the 32 teams (after getting 16 right in 2022). CB2 picked the exact records correctly for only 2 teams - the Seahawks and Giants - after getting 3 right in 2022. And CB2 got less than half of its division winners and playoff teams right - 3 of 8 and 6 of 14 respectively. Even better, two of the teams predicted to finish last in their divisions not only didn't finish last, they finished first - the Ravens, who finished with the best record in the league, and Texans. At least the number of teams for which CB2 graded an "F" dropped to 8 after it was 10 in 2022. But when the best you can do is celebrate less failure, that's not much to hang your hat on.

So, without any further delay, here's the report card for CB2's 2022 predictions.

AFC EAST

     predicted               actual

   1. NYJ 10-7         1. BUF 11-6

   2. BUF 10-7         2. MIA 11-6

   3. MIA 9-8            3. NYJ 7-10

   4. NE 5-12           4. NE 4-13

TIEBREAKER: Bills clinched 1st place due to head-to-head sweep of Dolphins (Weeks 4 and 18)

For 2nd straight year potential decent grade foiled by Jets' failure to live up to the forecast.

GRADE (for 2023): C

   Highest previous grade: B- (2009)

   Lowest previous grade: D (2020, 2015, 2014, 2013, and 2008)

   L5Y (grades for the last 5 years, starting at 2022 and going back to 2018): C+, C, D, C, D+

For the 2nd straight year CB2 whiffed on its pick of James Cook becoming the first Bills player with dreads to reach double figures in touchdowns. Cook had an outstanding season with 1,122 yards rushing and 445 yards receiving. But he scored only 6 TD (including his 5-yard reception vs. the Jets in Week 11 in left photo), which was 7 fewer than the 13 predicted. CB2 also was wrong that James would be the division's top-scoring player with dreads. That title went to Tyreek Hill, who racked up 7 TD in the Dolphins' first 7 games before suddenly cutting his dreads off. He finished with 13 TD, 3 more than the 10 predicted. CB2 was also wrong predicting than Dalvin Cook (James' big brother) would score 7 TD for the Jets. For the first time in his career Dalvin didn't score any TD at all. CB2 also thought Will McDonald (right photo) would lead all rookies with dreads with 6.5 sacks; but he finished in 3rd place with 3. The leading rookie with dreads was Jalen Carter of the Eagles with 6 sacks.

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AFC NORTH

     predicted               actual

1. PIT 13-4            1. BAL 13-4

2. CLEV 13-4        2. CLEV 11-6

3. CIN 12-5           3. PIT 10-7

4. BAL 9-8             4. CIN 9-8

CB2 picked 3-way race for title between Bengals, Browns, and Steelers .... and .... of course, Ravens breeze to division crown. At least CB2 was right picking all 4 teams to finish with winning records.

GRADE: D

   Highest: B- (2022 and 2011)
   Lowest: F (2008)

   L5Y: B-, D+, C+, D, C

CB2 was correct predicting David Njoku of the Browns to be the league's highest scoring tight end with dreads. He finished with a career high 6 TD, 2 more than his previous career high and 2 less than the 8 predicted by CB2. But CB2 was dead wrong about Za'Darius Smith, who had only 5.5 sacks in his first season in a Browns uniform (including one against the Cardinals in Week 9 in left photo) and his last season with dreads. CB2 had Smith leading all players with dreads with a career high 15 sacks, but instead he finished tied for 12th place. The leader in sacks among players with dreads was Denico Autry, who finished with a career high 11.5 in his final season with the Titans.

CB2 forecasted Diontae Johnson to bounce back from his scoreless 2022 and score 7 TD for the Steelers in 2023. Well, he kinda bounced back, finishing with 5 TD (including a 4-yard reception vs. the Colts in Week 15 in right photo). But he finished with a career low 51 catches for a career second-lowest 717 yards in his final season in Pittsburgh. CB2 had Najee Harris scoring 10 TD for the 3rd straight year and leading the Steelers in TD for the 3rd straight year ..... Score it 1 for 2. Harris did lead the Steelers in TD again but scored just 8 TD in 2023. CB2 also had Joey Porter Jr. of the Steelers to lead all rookies with dreads with 4 INT. Nope. Porter cut his dreads off after his 1st career game (wtf?). And he finished with only 1 INT anyway. Deonte Banks of the Giants, Antonio Johnson of the Jaguars, and Ji'Ayir Brown of the 49ers had 2 INT each to lead all rookies with dreads.

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AFC SOUTH 

     predicted               actual

1. TENN 11-6         1. HOU 10-7

2. JAC 11-6            2. JAC 9-8

3. IND 5-12            3. IND 9-8

4. HOU 1-16          4. TENN 6-11 

TIEBREAKER: Jaguars clinched 2nd place due to head-to-head sweep of Colts (Weeks 1 and 6)

9 games off on Texans' forecast. That might be a record for the worst forecast ever. And the other 3 forecasts were hardly any better.

GRADE: D

   Highest: B- (2019)

   Lowest: D- (2018, 2012, 2010, 2009)

   L5Y: D, C-, C, B-, D-

CB2 was confident Derrick Henry would lead all players with dreads with 17 TD. Not quite. Henry scored 12 TD in 2023 (including his 4th of the season at Pittsburgh in Week 9 in left photo) to finish tied for 3rd place among players with dreads. The leader was CeeDee Lamb with 14. CB2 had the Titans' players with dreads combining for 28 TD to claim the team crown. Close but no cigar. For the 2nd straight season the Titans led the AFC, totaling 23 TD by players with dreads in 2023, but finished 1 behind the league-leading Cowboys, who had 24 (In 2022 the Titans finished 1 behind the Vikings 21-20 for the team crown). 

And CB2 picked Colts QB Anthony Richardson to finish with 10 rushing TD and 13 TD passes in his rookie season. Well, he was on his way to surpassing both of those totals before suffering a shoulder injury in Week 5. He finished with 4 rushing TD (the last of which coming in Week 4 against the Rams in right photo) and 3 TD passes in 4 games played but then missed the rest of the regular season. His future is very bright, but unfortunately it looks like Anthony has switched his hair from dreads to braids for the 2024 season.

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AFC WEST

     predicted               actual

1. KC 13-4              1. KC 11-6

2. LAC 12-5            2. LV 8-9

3. DEN 7-10           3. DEN 8-9

4. LV 7-10              4. LAC 5-12

TIEBREAKER: Raiders clinched 2nd place due to head-to-head sweep of Broncos (Weeks 1 and 18)

CB2 nailed Broncos-Raiders tie and almost nailed their records. But way off on Chiefs and Chargers. After finishing 2nd in first 3 seasons (2013-15) of Coach Reid era, Chiefs have won division title 8 straight years.

GRADE: C

   Highest: A- (2010)

   Lowest: D- (2018)

   L5Y: C-, D, C-, D+, D-

CB2 expected Isiah Pacheco, who scored 5 TD in his 2022 rookie season, to improve to 12 TD in 2023 and dethrone Raiders WR Davante Adams as the division's top-scoring player with dreads. Pacheco finished with 9 TD (including his 7th of the season at Lambeau Field in Week 13 in left photo) to finish in 2nd place among AFC West players with dreads. Instead it was Adams' teammate, Jakobi Meyers, who led the division's players with dreads with a career high 10 TD in his first season in a Raiders uniform. 

CB2 adamantly predicted Quentin Johnston would score 3 TD and end the Chargers' 2-year drought with no offensive TD by players with dreads. Johnston finished with 2 TD in his rookie season (he celebrates the first of them against the Lions in Week 10 in right photo); but technically it was TE Gerald Everett who broke the drought with his 1-yard TD catch vs. the Cowboys in Week 6. CB2 also picked Asante Samuel Jr. of the Chargers to tie for the most interceptions by a player with dreads with 7. But he finished with only 2. In a down year for interceptions by players with dreads there was a 6-way tie for the lead with 4 INT apiece.

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AFC actual records

BUF 11-6     BAL 13-4      HOU 10-7    KC 11-6

MIA 11-6     CLEV 11-6    JAC 9-8        LV 8-9

NYJ 7-10     PIT 10-7       IND 9-8        DEN 8-9

NE 4-13       CIN 9-8        TENN 6-11   LAC 5-12

AFC TIEBREAKERS 

Bills clinched #3 seed due to head-to-head victory over Chiefs (Week 14)

Browns clinched #5 seed due to better record than Dolphins in games vs. conference opponents (CLEV 8-4, MIA 7-5)

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NFC EAST

     predicted               actual

1. DAL 11-6           1. DAL 12-5

2. PHIL 9-8            2. PHIL 11-6

3. WASH 7-10       3. NYG 6-11

4. NYG 6-11          4. WASH 4-13

CB2's highest graded division. Make it an even 20 years in a row without a repeat champion in this division. CB2 correctly forecasted the Eagles' late-season slide; but it began a couple of weeks too late for them to miss the playoffs.

GRADE: C+

     Highest: B- (2011)

     Lowest: D- (2020)

     L5Y: C, D+, D-, C, C+

CB2 thought the Cowboys would repeat as the team with the most interceptions by players with dreads, and they were. But they had to share the crown with 5 other teams, as the Jets, Giants, 49ers, Browns, and Saints all also had 6 INT by players with dreads. The total of 6 was only half of the 12 CB2 predicted the Cowboys would have. And they took the crown with very little help from Trevon Diggs, who got his 1st INT of the season in Week 2 (that's him celebrating the pick in photo on right) and then tore an ACL in practice a couple of days later and missed the final 15 games of the season. CB2 had predicted Diggs to tie Asante Samuel Jr. for the most interceptions by players with dreads with 7.

CB2 was positive that CeeDee Lamb would hit double figures in TD for the first time and would be the division's top-scoring player with dreads for the 4th straight year. Correct on both counts. And Lamb did even better than CB2 predicted, finishing with 14 TD (his 8th of the season on a 15-yard reception against the Seahawks in Week 13 in the photo on left), 2 more than the 12 predicted. The 14 TD gave CeeDee the individual crown for the most TD by any player with dreads in 2023 and were the 6th most by player in the league.

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NFC NORTH

     predicted               actual

1. CHI 10-7           1. DET 12-5

2. DET 10-7          2. GB 9-8

3. GB 8-9              3. MINN 7-10

4. MINN 5-12        4. CHI 7-10

TIEBREAKER: Vikings clinched 3rd place due to better record than Bears in games vs. common opponents (MINN 6-8, CHI 5-9)

A much better job by CB2 than last year's "F", but still couldn't get any of the teams in the right order. Would've nailed Bears' pick had they not (incredibly) blown 4th quarter leads of 10, 12, and 14 points in 3 of their defeats.

GRADE: C-

     Highest: B (2021 and 2009)

     Lowest: F (2022)

     L5Y: F, B, C+, D+, D-

CB2 expected LB Tremaine Edmunds would finish with a career high 130 tackles and make his 3rd Pro Bowl appearance in his first season in a Bears uniform. He did neither. But he wasn't too bad. His 113 tackles in 2023 were the 4th most of his career and just 8 behind his career high of 121 (set in 2018). Edmunds did however set a new career high with 4 interceptions (he returns the one at Detroit in Week 14 for 6 yards in left photo). CB2 also expected RB D'Onta Foreman to score a new career high 8 TD in his first season in a Bears uniform .... and he might have had he not been inactive for 9 games (some of those inactives were due to injury). In the 8 games he did play Foreman scored 5 TD, tying his career high.

CB2 forecasted Jahmyr Gibbs to be the division' top-scoring player with dreads but not the league's top-scoring rookie with dreads with 12 TD. Score that one 1 for 2. With the 11 TD he scored (including his 12-yard run vs. the Bears in Week 14 in right photo) Gibbs did, in fact, lead all NFC North players with dreads and all NFL rookies with dreads. He also finished tied for 1st in TD by any rookie (dreads or not), sharing the title with Dolphins RB De'Von Achane. 

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NFC SOUTH

     predicted               actual

1. ATL 11-6             1. TB 9-8

2. NO 10-7             2. NO 9-8

3. TB 4-13              3. ATL 7-10

4. CAR 4-13           4. CAR 2-15

TIEBREAKER: Buccaneers clinched 1st place due to better record than Saints in games vs. common opponents (TB 9-5, NO 7-7)

Close only on Saints. Bucs beat long odds to repeat as division champ .... and they actually finished with a winning record this time.

GRADE: D+

     Highest: A (2009)

     Lowest: D (2020, 2019, 2013, 2011, and 2008)

     L5Y: C, B, D, D, B 

CB2 predicted Bijan Robinson (and not Jahmyr Gibbs) to lead all rookies with dreads with 14 TD. But he had only 8 TD (one of his two vs. the Saints in Week 12 in left photo), finishing in 2nd place among rookies with dreads (and 6th place among all rookies), 3 behind Gibbs. CB2 also predicted Cordarrelle Patterson would add to his career record total of TD on kickoff returns. But instead Patterson had the worst season of his career in kickoff returns in his final season in a Falcons uniform, averaging a career low 21.9 yards on only 7 returns with none taken to the house.
CB2 expected Donte Jackson to make it 6 straight years with at least 2 interceptions, picking him to tie his career high with 4 picks. But instead Donte (celebrating his FF vs. the Texans in Week 8 in right photo) was shut out in interceptions for the first time in his career. He played a career high 903 defensive snaps over 16 games and finished with 0 INT in his final season in a Panthers uniform.

Jackson and Patterson, by the way, will be teammates in 2024, as members of the Steelers.

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NFC WEST

     predicted               actual

1. SF 13-4                1. SF 12-5

2. SEA 9-8               2. LAR 10-7

3. LAR 6-11            3. SEA 9-8

4. ARIZ 1-16           4. ARIZ 4-13

Missed badly on the Rams (I warned you, CB2) but had the right idea with the other 3 teams

GRADE: C

     Highest: B+ (2014, 2012)

     Lowest: F (2018)

     L5Y: C, D+, D, C, F

CB2 was correct that the 49ers would have the best record in the NFC (they tied for it) and that Fred Warner would make 1st team All-Pro for the 2nd straight year. But Warner did not fulfill CB2's prediction that he would score his 2nd career TD. Federico (real first name) did set a new career high with 4 INT (he returns the first of them vs. the Cowboys in Week 5 in left photo) and was 5 short of his career high with 132 tackles; but he did not score. The 4 interceptions did tie Warner for the most interceptions by a player with dreads with 5 other players with dreads: Bears LB Tremaine Edmunds, Jets S Jordan Whitehead, Saints S Tyrann Mathieu, Texans CB Steven Nelson, and Browns CB Martin Emerson.

CB2 had Kenneth Walker leading the division's players with dreads in TD for the 2nd straight year .... and was correct. But Walker scored only 9 TD (same as in 2022, including his 6th of the season at Cincinnati in Week 6 in right photo), 3 fewer than the 12 predicted, in his last season with dreads. CB2 also expected WR Tutu Atwell to lead the Rams in TD receptions with 7. But despite playing a career high 60% of the Rams' snaps on offense he had only 3 TD catches, tied for 4th most on the team. Rookie Puka Nacua led the Rams with 6 TD catches.
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NFC actual records

1. DAL 12-5      1. DET 12-5      1. TB 9-8        1. SF 12-5

2. PHIL 11-6      2. GB 9-8          2. NO 9-8       2. LAR 10-7   

3. NYG 6-11      3. MINN 7-10    3. ATL 7-10    3. SEA 9-8

4. WASH 4-13   4. CHI 7-10       4. CAR 2-15   4. ARIZ 4-13

NFC TIEBREAKERS

49ers clinched #1 seed due to better record than Cowboys and Lions in games vs. conference opponents (SF 10-2, DAL 9-3, DET 8-4)

Cowboys clinched #2 seed due to head-to-head victory over Lions (Week 17)

Saints eliminated from 3-way tie for #7 seed due to worse record than Packers and Seahawks in games vs. conference opponents (GB 7-5, SEA 7-5, NO 6-6)

Packers clinched #7 seed due to better strength of victory than Seahawks (GB 70-83, SEA 60-93 ..... i.e. the 9 teams the Packers beat had a combined 70-83 record, while the 9 teams the Seahawks beat went a combined 60-93, so the Packers won the tiebreaker.)  

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DIVISION WINNERS

3 of 8 division winners predicted correctly. (And none of the 5 CB2 was wrong about were close to 1st).

GRADE: C-

     Highest: B- (2021)

     Lowest: F (2008)

     L5Y: C, B-, C-, C-, D

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PLAYOFF TEAMS

AFC

   predicted     actual

  

   1. PIT         1. BAL

   2. KC          2. BUF

   3. TENN     3. KC

   4. NYJ        4. HOU

   5. CLEV     5. CLEV

   6. LAC       6. MIA

   7. CIN        7. PIT

NFC

   predicted     actual

   1. SF           1. SF      

   2. ATL         2. DAL

   3. DAL        3. DET

   4. CHI         4. TB

   5. NO          5. PHIL

   6. DET        6. LAR

   7. SEA        7. GB

CB2 correct on only 6 of its 14 picks for the playoffs, barely missing out on Seahawks/Saints.

GRADE: C-

     Highest: B (2011)

     Lowest: D+ (2018)

     L5Y: B-, C, B-, C-, D+

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SUPER BOWL 

• predicted: SF over NYJ 34-24
• actual: KC over SF 25-22 (OT)

GRADE: D

     Highest: A (2012)

     Lowest: F (2022, 2021, 2018, 2016, 2015, 2011, 2010, and 2008)

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OVERALL GRADE

Taking the average of the 11 grades comes out to a 1.58, lower than the last 2 years but still (barely) in the same "C-" range as the last 2 years.

GRADE: C-

     Highest: B- (2009)

     Lowest: D (2018 and 2008)

FYI .... Had the 49ers won the Super Bowl as predicted, the final average would have been 1.81, and I would have been able to award CB2 a "C". But ..... close only counts .....