Fool's Steel

Week 12 of the 2020 NFL season ended a couple of days later than scheduled; and after they defeated the Baltimore Ravens on a late Wednesday afternoon at Heinz Field, the Pittsburgh Steelers were 11-0, stood as the league's only remaining undefeated team, and seemingly were well on their way to the Super Bowl my crystal ball predicted it would win. But things certainly changed in a hurry, didn't they Steelers fans? What looked like was going to be a march to the championship turned out to be fool's gold - or in this case fool's steel, if you will. The Steelers suffered their first loss 5 days later and staggered to the finish line, dropping 4 of their final 5 regular season games (and needing to rally from 17 points behind in the one game they did win), barely hanging on to win the AFC North division title, and then exiting the playoffs far short of the Super Bowl with a wretched 48-37 first round home loss to the Cleveland Browns, a game in which they trailed 28-0 in the 1st quarter and turned the ball over 5 times.

Cracks in the foundation could actually be found before the Week 13 home loss to Washington started their descent - specifically in the win over the Ravens. Originally scheduled to be played on Thanksgiving night, the game ended up being postponed 6 days to accommodate the Ravens, who were in the midst of a COVID-19 outbreak. When the teams finally took the field, the Ravens were without 9 starters, including star QB Lamar Jackson, and were a 10-point underdog; and yet the Steelers struggled to win the game 19-14. Even worse, the Steelers lost one of their best players, as LB Bud Dupree suffered a torn ACL in his right knee (photo above of him on the bench after being injured), ending his season as well as his bid to make the Pro Bowl team for the first time. Surely it was only a coincidence that the Steelers' demise began with the loss of Dupree; but it makes you wonder what would have happened if he hadn't been injured. 

The Ravens, of course, were not the only team to be affected/afflicted by the pandemic. But somehow, someway the NFL got all the games in without having to add an extra week for makeup games. Yes, it was a challenge. I mean, if you are an L.A. Chargers fan who picked up a pocket schedule before the season began, you probably found yourself tearing that thing up halfway through the season, as not one, two, or three, but four of their games (and their bye week) had to be switched from the original dates just to make everything work out. Tuesday, Wednesday, whenever. Teams played on every day of the week as the NFL bent over backwards and did cartwheels to try to keep things going. And keep on going they did, even with the stadiums empty for many teams and nearly empty for the teams that allowed a handful of fans to attend.  

And when the dust settled? ..... Ho-hum, Tom Brady won the Super Bowl. Again. Only this time it wasn't for the New England Patriots. Instead in his first season wearing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform Brady raised his record to 7-3 all time in Super Bowls. It's outrageous, isn't it? Most players would be thrilled to make it to one Super Bowl. Brady has been a starting quarterback in 10 of them and won 7. The Buccaneers hadn't even been to the playoffs in 13 years and hadn't won a playoff game in 18 before Brady arrived.

It was a struggle for much of the season. After 12 games the Bucs were 7-5 and not exactly looking like title contenders. But after trailing the Atlanta Falcons 17-0 at halftime in Week 15, their offense suddenly became nearly unstoppable, scoring at least 30 points in their final 3 games of the regular season and all 4 wins in the playoffs. 

The first three of those playoff victories were on the road; and, fans or no fans, that's impressive. After surviving NFC East champion Washington 31-23 in Round 1, the Bucs went to New Orleans for Round 2 and knocked out the NFC South champion Saints, a team they had lost to twice earlier in the season. Next up, a trip to Lambeau Field for the NFC Championship game was made much less daunting by the pleasant weather (hey, a sunny, 29-degree day in Green Bay in January counts as very pleasant) and the fact that only about 8,000 fans were allowed inside the 80,000-seat stadium. Helped enormously by a blunder of major proportions by CB Kevin King (come on Kev, how can you give up a 39-yard touchdown 8 seconds before halftime?), the Bucs defeated the NFC North champion Packers 31-26. 

After the 3 road wins, the Buccaneers became the first team ever to play in a Super Bowl on their home field (another feather in Brady's cap); and in Super Bowl 55 the Bucs' defense, which stood tall in Green Bay when Brady tried to give the game away with 3 interceptions in the 2nd half, stood even taller, completely stymieing the explosive offense of the Kansas City Chiefs - which they did not do when the teams met during the regular season. On the same field in Week 12 the Buccaneers surrendered 543 yards, including more than 200 yards receiving by WR Tyreek Hill in the 1st quarter alone, in a 27-24 L. But it was a different story the second time around. Hill (7 catches for 73 yards) didn't hurt the Bucs at all; and neither did anybody else as they rolled to a 31-9 victory, holding the Chiefs without a touchdown for the first time ever with Patrick Mahomes as their QB.    

You could hardly blame DT Steve McLendon (photo on right) for taking a moment to give thanks shortly after the celebratory confetti shower littered the field. 35 years old and in his 11th NFL season, time was running out for him to win a championship. And after starting the season 0-6 while a member of the New York Jets, the Super Bowl was probably the last thing on his mind. But then, like a gift coming down from heaven, the Jets, who had nothing but losing seasons in his 4 years with them before this one, traded him to the Buccaneers - and Brady. And just like that, two months later he earns his first Super Bowl ring. McLendon actually almost had a chance to play in a Super Bowl early in his career. After spending his 2009 rookie season on the Steelers' practice squad, he played for the 2010 Steelers' team that made it to (and lost) the Super Bowl. But he was inactive for the last 5 games of the regular season that year and didn't play at all in the playoffs either. This time he was in uniform for the Super Bowl - and on the field for 26 snaps, finishing with 1 tackle. Congratulations, Steve!

My crystal ball (aka CB2) wasn't too far off in its forecast for the Buccaneers and Chiefs. In my post titled "Overruled" it had them both losing their respective conference championship games instead of winning them. Its forecast of a Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowl turned out to be a dud. The Steelers were Fool's Steel, and the Cowboys just flat awful. Although it should be noted that flat awful is the fate for many teams when they lose their starting QB to injury, as Dallas did. Even so, as bad as they were, the Cowboys still had a chance to make the playoffs on the final day of the regular season, only to blow that chance with a loss to the N.Y. Giants. Finishing 6-10, the Cowboys were a whopping 7 games worse than CB2's prediction of 13-3. That forecast tied for CB2's worst, as it was also 7 games off on the Browns (11-5 instead of 4-12). CB2 earned a grade of F (4 or more games off) for 9 teams, same as last year.

For the second straight season CB2 correctly picked the exact record for the Los Angeles Rams (10-6). That was one of three exact records predicted - the Buccaneers and Detroit Lions were the other two. CB2 correctly forecast in which place 11 teams would finish in their respective divisions, down one from the 12 it got right for 2019. CB2 was at its best in forecasting which teams would make the playoffs, getting 9 of the 14 right. Overall, it was another disappointing report card for CB2, but what else is new ......

AFC EAST 

          predicted             actual

1. BUF 10-6        1. BUF 13-3
2. MIA 7-9           2. MIA 10-6
3. NYJ 5-11         3. NE 7-9
4. NE 4-12           4. NYJ 2-14

Ah, yes; you can't beat consistency. CB2 3 games off for all 4 teams ..... GRADE: D ... (L12Y - the grade for each of the previous 12 years, starting with 2019 and going back to 2008: C, D+,C-,C-,D,D,D,C-,C,C-,B-,D)

CB2, not foreseeing the hamstring injury that plagued Bills CB Josh Norman and caused him to miss 6 games, picked Norman to have the most interceptions by any player with dreads with a career high 7. But he finished with only 1, in Week 17 against the Dolphins. Chiefs S Tyrann Mathieu's 6 INT were the most by anyone with dreads. 

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AFC NORTH 

          predicted             actual

1. PIT 13-3          1. PIT 12-4
2. BAL 13-3         2. BAL 11-5
3. CLEV 4-12      3. CLEV 11-5
4. CIN 3-13         4. CIN 4-11-1

TIEBREAKER: Ravens clinched 2nd place due to head-to-head sweep of Browns (Weeks 1 and 14).

CB2 not too bad here. Only bad miss was Browns and got the order of finish exactly correct ..... GRADE: C+ ... (L12Y: D,C,C,C+,D+,C,C,C+,B-,C-,C,F)

CB2 was incorrect in its prediction that LB Bud Dupree (above) and CB Joe Haden (below) would make the Pro Bowl team. Dupree may have been on his way until suffering a torn ACL in Week 12. He finished with 8 sacks, which was 5 fewer than CB2 forecast. Haden finished with 2 INT, 4 fewer than the career high 6 CB2 expected. CB2 also expected the Steelers to allow the fewest points in the the league. But the Rams (296) and Ravens (303) allowed fewer than the 312 allowed by the Steelers.

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AFC SOUTH

          predicted             actual

1. IND 10-6          1. TENN 11-5
2. HOU 9-7           2. IND 11-5
3. TENN 9-7         3. HOU 4-12
4. JAC 2-14          4. JAC 1-15

TIEBREAKER: Titans clinched 1st place due to better record than Colts in games against division opponents (TENN 5-1, IND 4-2)

Jaguars' only win - in Week 1 vs. Colts - cost Colts division crown ..... GRADE: C ... (L12Y: B-,D-,D+,D,C+,C,D+,D-,D,D-,D-,C-)

CB2 thought that with Philip Rivers as his new QB, Colts WR T.Y. Hilton would enjoy a stellar season, leading all NFL players with dreads with a career high 15 TD receptions. Didn't happen. Hilton barely had the most TD catches by a player with dreads on his own team. He didn't score his 1st TD until Week 12 and ended up tied with WR Zach Pascal for the team lead with 5 TD catches. Packers WR Davante Adams had the most TD receptions by a player with dreads with 18.

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AFC WEST

          predicted             actual

1. KC 12-4            1. KC 14-2
2. LV 11-5             2. LV 8-8
3. DEN 9-7           3. LAC 7-9
4. LAC 8-8            4. DEN 5-11

Strong finish by Chargers denies CB2's bid to get order of finish exactly right ..... GRADE: C- ... (L12Y: D+,D-,C,C,C-,C,C,D,B,A-,B,B)

 

CB2 was sure that Melvin Gordon (photo above), after moving from the Chargers to the Broncos, would lead all NFL players with dreads with 17 TD and lead the Broncos to the crown for the team with the most TD scored by players with dreads with 27. But Gordon scored only 10 TD (ninth most by a player with dreads); and with WR Jerry Jeudy scoring only 3 TD in a slightly disappointing rookie season, the Broncos' total of 13 TD by players with dreads was only good enough for 8th place. The Packers were the team with the most TD scored by players with dreads with 33, and the Saints RB Alvin Kamara was the leader in TD by anyone (dreads and no dreads) with 21. 

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AFC TIEBRREAKERS

Ravens clinched #5 seed over Colts due to head-to-head victory (Week 9)

Browns clinched #6 seed over Colts due to head-to-head victory (Week 5)

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NFC EAST

          predicted             actual

1. DAL 13-3         1. WASH 7-9
2. WASH 9-7        2. NYG 6-10
3. PHIL 8-8           3. DAL 6-10
4. NYG 3-13         4. PHIL 4-11-1

TIEBREAKER: Giants clinched 2nd place due to better record than Cowboys in games against division opponents (NYG 4-2, DAL 2-4)

CB2 proud to be one of the few to pick WFT to make the playoffs, but it came at the expense of Cowboys. This was CB2's worst predicted division - not close on any of the teams ..... GRADE: D- ... (L12Y: C,C+,C,C,D,C+,D,D+,B-,D,C,C-)

CB2 nailed its prediction that WFT DE Chase Young would be the league's defensive rookie of the year. He won the honor despite finishing with just 7.5 sacks, which were 6.5 fewer than the 13 CB2 expected. 

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NFC NORTH 

          predicted                 actual

1. CHI 9-7               1. GB 13-3
2. GB 7-9                 2. CHI 8-8
3. MINN 6-10          3. MINN 7-9
4. DET 5-11             4. DET 5-11

CB2 certainly was right when it said "Packers not as good as last year's record indicates" - they weren't as good, they were better. Accurate forecasts for the other 3 teams makes this CB2's highest graded division (barely better than AFC North) and its best grade for this division since 2011 ..... GRADE: C+ ... (L12Y: D+,D-,D,C,D,D+,C-,C-,B-,C,B,C-)

CB2 expected WR Davante Adams (above) to have a big year, and it was even bigger than expected. Adams led the league with a career high 18 TD receptions, 5 more than the 13 CB2 predicted. 5 of the 18 came in the two games against the Vikings. And with RB Aaron Jones also hitting double figures in TD, Packers successfully defended their crown as the team with the most TD scored by players with dreads with 33, edging the Vikings, who had 29. 

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NFC SOUTH

          predicted             actual

1. TB 11-5             1. NO 12-4
2. ATL 8-8             2. TB 11-5
3. NO 8-8              3. CAR 5-11
4. CAR 2-14         4. ATL 4-12

With point differential of -18 for the whole season, Falcons had no business being 8 games under .500. Incredibly they blew a 16-point lead, 17-point lead, and 20-point lead all in the same season ..... GRADE: D ... (L12Y: D,B,C+,D+,C-,C,D,C-,D,B+,A,D)         

RB Todd Gurley (above) had the least productive season in yards rushing and second least productive in touchdowns of his career. After Falcons dropped out of contention early, his playing time was limited late in the season, and he finished with 9 TD, 5 fewer than CB2 predicted. And with WR Calvin Ridley, who had his hair in dreads throughout the preseason, deciding it wouldn't be his first regular season with dreads (we'll try for next year), Falcons had no chance at the NFC-leading 26 TD by players with dreads CB2 predicted. Packers had the most in the NFC and the NFL with 33. DE Takk McKinley (below) got off to a good start with a sack on opening day; but after suffering an injury in Week 2, he played in only 2 more games (for only 29 snaps) and had no more sacks before being released after Week 10, not coming close to the double digits in sacks CB2 predicted.

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NFC WEST

          predicted             actual

1. SF 11-5              1. SEA 12-4
2. ARIZ 11-5         2. LAR 10-6
3. LAR 10-6          3. ARIZ 8-8
4. SEA 6-10           4. SF 6-10

CB2 gets special mention here for picking the teams in the exact opposite order in which they finished. But perfect Rams pick saved this from being a F ..... GRADE: D ... (L12Y: C,F,D+,C,B-,B+,C,B+,D,D-,D,D-)

WR DeAndre Hopkins did not disappoint in his first season with the Cardinals, tying his career high with 115 receptions; but his 6 TD catches were way short of the 14 CB2 expected him to lead NFC players with dreads with. Hopkins was 5th among NFC players with dreads. In 1st place, of course, was Davante Adams with 18. Memo to Coach Kingsbury and QB Murray: Cardinals were 5-1 when Hopkins scored a TD. Need to find him in the end zone more often. ......... CB2 thought the Seahawks would slump because they would have the most player games lost due to COVID-19 in the league. But they were one of three teams that had no players miss games due to COVID, and they went 12-4, their second best finish under Coach Carroll. Way to call 'em, CB2!

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NFC TIEBREAKERS

Saints clinched #2 seed over Seahawks due to better record than Seahawks in games against conference opponents (NO 10-2, SEA 9-3)

Bears clinched #7 seed over Cardinals due to better record than Cardinals in games against common opponents (CHI 3-2, ARIZ 1-4)

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DIVISION WINNERS 

CB2 got 3 of the 8 correct (and is still mourning the two that got away - NFC East, AFC South - in Week 17) ..... GRADE: C- ... (L12Y: C-,D,D,C-,D-,C-,C-,C,C-D,C-,F)

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PLAYOFF TEAMS

AFC

      predicted        actual

1. PIT           1. KC
2. KC            2. BUF
3. BUF          3. PIT
4. IND           4. TENN
5. BAL          5. BAL
6. LV             6. CLEV
7. HOU         7. IND

NFC

       predicted        actual

1. DAL           1. GB
2. TB              2. NO
3. SF              3. SEA
4. CHI             4. WASH
5. ARIZ          5. TB
6. LAR           6. LAR
7. WASH        7. CHI

That's 9 right out of 14 for CB2, not too bad ...... GRADE: B- ... (L12Y: C-,D+,C-,C+,C-,B-,C,C,B,C-,B-,C-)

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SUPER BOWL 

predicted: PIT over DAL

actual: TB over KC

GRADE: F ... (L12Y: A-,F,D,F,F,D,D,A,F,F,A-,F)

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OVERALL GRADE

In its picks for 2019 CB2 graded out just barely above a C-. For 2020 it's just below a C-. Averaging the 11 individual grades, the final number for 2020 is 1.46. My C- range begins at 1.50, meaning that if the Cowboys had beaten the Giants (and WFT had lost to the Eagles) in Week 17, CB2 would have gotten that C-. Instead ..... GRADE: D+ ... (L12Y: C,D,C-,C-,D+,C,D+,C,C-,D+,B-,D)

My switch from CB to CB2 a few years back isn't exactly paying dividends, but there's no use crying over spilled milk. Just turn the page and try again.