Rambunctious

"What the hell's going on out here?!"

Coach Lombardi screamed it so eloquently all those years ago during one of those rare times when things weren't going the Packers' way. And today I'm the one screaming it, because something has gone amiss in the NFL over the past few seasons. I mean, whatever happened to the NFL I used to know? Certain things that used to be sure things aren't anymore. I'm talking about three things in particular that, before each season started, were given. Automatic. No matter what you knew you could depend on them to come through for you. But not anymore. Tom Brady-led teams took a hatchet to two of them.

Each and every year, for 24 straight years (1994-2017) the team that lost the Super Bowl the previous season failed to return to the Super Bowl for a 2nd straight season. But that streak ended in the 2018 season, when the New England Patriots, who lost to the Philadelphia Eagles the year before in Super Bowl 52, not only made it to Super Bowl 53 they won the thing, 13-3, over the Los Angeles Rams despite a less than vintage performance by Brady. Then two years later Brady was the quarterback for the team that was the first ever to play in a Super Bowl on their home field. In the first 54 seasons of the Super Bowl era (1966-2019) not a single one of the 108 participating teams played in their home stadium. That, of course, is no longer the case, as Brady and his friends showed us you are allowed to play (and win) the Super Bowl on your home field, with the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers pulling off the feat, defeating the Kansas City Chiefs 31-9 at Tampa's Raymond James Stadium. 

A third used-to-be sure thing fell last season - the one regarding the final 4 playoff teams in a season. For every season since 1997 at least one (and often more than one) of the teams that played in its conference championship game one year missed the playoffs the next year. But it was no surprise at all when that streak ended in 2021. I mean, even my crystal ball knew the Bills, Chiefs, Packers, and Buccaneers would all be back in the playoffs after appearing in the 2020 conference title games (although it was starting to get a little dicey when the Bills dropped to 7-6 with 4 games to go).

Amid all this change it's nice to know that there are some givens that are still given. It's still a given that there will be at least 4 teams in the playoffs every season that that didn't make the playoffs the year before - as has been the case every year since the NFL switched to an 8-division format in 2002. That one is even more given now that (since 2020) there are 14 teams instead of 12 in the playoffs. And on the personal level it was always a given that - no matter what - Brandon Marshall and Ryan Fitzpatrick would never be on a team that made the playoffs. I used past tense because Fitzpatrick this offseason joined Marshall among the ranks of the retired. Amazingly Fitzpatrick (17) and Marshall (13) combined for 30 seasons of NFL football on 13 different teams, including when they were teammates on the New York Jets in 2015-16 (see photo above from 2015, the last year before Marshall started growing his hair out), without playing a single playoff game. 

And oh, here's another one: Matthew Stafford will never be on a team that wins a playoff game. In 12 seasons of NFL football Stafford, the first player picked in the 2009 Draft, has played in only 3 playoff games and has lost all of them. 282 career TD passes, more than 45,000 career yards passing, and 0-3 in the playoffs. No other player picked first overall has played longer than Stafford without tasting any postseason success ........ Huh? .... What?! .... WHAT?!!! You say Stafford not only won a playoff game last season he won the Super Bowl?? NO WAY!! ..... Oh well, like I said before .....  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocV5bGHdYag    

Yes way, it appears another NFL sure thing has bitten the dust. Unfortunately. In his 13th season - and not coincidentally his first not playing for the Detroit Lions - Stafford picked up not just his first but his first 4 postseason wins, the last of which coming in Super Bowl 56, with the Los Angeles Rams defeating the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20 at SoFi Stadium 6 months ago. After 54 Super Bowls without a team playing on its home field, the Rams' win makes it 2 years in a row that a team has played in - and won - the Super Bowl at home. I wanted to include a photo of star CB Jalen Ramsey holding the Vince Lombardi Trophy at the beginning of this post; but with his refusal to let his dreads be seen, you got one of LB Travin Howard instead. Jalen, with his dreads (needlessly) all covered up, is seen in the photo above on the left, shaking hands with WR and game MVP Cooper Kupp during the confetti shower after the game.

In his 1st season in a Rams uniform Stafford (photo on right, celebrating with cigar and trophy in the locker room after the game) was the same talented, often prolific, and occasionally mistake-prone quarterback he was all those years in Detroit. But with a far better supporting cast around him than he had in any of his seasons with the Lions, he can call himself a champion. That cast included Ramsey, superstar DT Aaron Donald, and Kupp, whose 2021 season was one of the best ever for a WR. 

It was the Rams' second ever Super Bowl victory and 4th ever NFL championship overall, and it did not come easily. Certainly the Rams did the majority of the heavy lifting themselves; but make no mistake, they got their fair share of help on the way to the title; and most of that help came - oddly enough - from two of their NFC West division rivals, the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. 

Needing a win (or tie) in Week 18 to clinch the division themselves, the Rams blew a 17-0 lead and lost at home to the 49ers 27-24 in overtime - a game that ended with Stafford throwing an interception. But while the loss cost the Rams the #2 seed for the NFC playoffs, it did not cost them the division crown because the 2nd place Arizona Cardinals also lost at home, 38-30, to the last-place and 6-10 Seahawks. That allowed the Rams to play their 1st round playoff game - against the Cardinals - at home instead of on the road. And then the 49ers, the Rams' most hated rival, stepped up big time - not once, not twice, but three times - to help the Rams' cause. 

In their 1st round playoff game the 6th seeded 49ers knocked off the 3rd seeded Dallas Cowboys 23-17 and in the process spared the Rams from having to go to Green Bay for the 2nd round. The Rams' 2020 season ended with a playoff loss in Green Bay, and they also lost to the Packers there during Week 12 in 2021; so a trip to Tampa was much more desirable than having to go back to Lambeau Field again - even if the Buccaneers were the defending champs.

In the 2nd round the 49ers eliminated the top-seeded Packers 13-10, once again saving the Rams from having to travel to Green Bay; and after defeating the Buccaneers 30-27 in a thriller - despite blowing a 27-3 lead and despite a minus 2 turnover margin - the 4th seeded Rams suddenly found themselves hosting the NFC Championship game. Yes, they did lose twice to the 49ers during the regular season; but playing them a 3rd time was still way more desirable than going to Green Bay in the dead of winter.

And in that conference championship game the 49ers came to the Rams' aid one more time. Clinging to a 17-14 lead with 10 minutes left to play in the game, the 49ers had just punted on the preceding play; but it looked liked they were going to get the ball right back after Stafford lofted a pass deep down the middle nowhere near any Rams receiver. Instead the ball was headed directly into the hands of 49ers S Jaquiski Tartt for an easy interception. And then ....... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bv1na9PSkNM ... (also see photo on left)

 ...... Yikes! What happened? That catch was so easy I think I could have caught it. No doubt Tartt, along with all of Niners Nation, are still having nightmares about that one. Had Tartt not dropped the ball, its reasonable to assume he would have returned it at least into Rams territory and maybe into field goal range. There's no telling what would have happened after that, and I'm not saying the 49ers would have won. But I sure would have liked their chances. Instead the Rams kept possession and tied the game with a FG 8 plays later. And they scored again on their next drive, kicking another FG with 1:46 remaining to take the lead. And then after the 49ers' ensuing possession ended 37 seconds later with an interception by Howard, it was time for Ramsey (bottom photo above on left, with dreads uncovered for a change), WR Odell Beckham (middle of photo), and Donald to celebrate with the George Halas Trophy, presented annually to the NFC champion.

The victory over the Bengals in the Super Bowl was no less dramatic. Down 20-16 in the 2nd half, the Rams had gone three-and-out 3 times in a row when they took possession with 6:13 to play. They did not go three-and-out again. 15 plays and 79 yards later they were in the end zone and in the lead, with Kupp making several clutch plays on the drive, including the game-winning 1-yard TD catch with 1:25 on the clock. Finishing with 92 yards and 2 TD on 8 receptions - and don't forget his 7-yard run to convert a 4th and 1 earlier in the game-winning drive - Kupp deservedly was named MVP of the game (photo on right). Everybody knew the ball was going to him, but the Bengals still couldn't stop him. Of course, they might have tried double-teaming him ......  

The Rams' championship was not predicted by my crystal ball (big surprise there). CB2 was correct in predicting that a team from Ohio would represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. But it picked the wrong one. In my post from last September titled "Brownie Points" CB2 assured you the team from northern Ohio, the Cleveland Browns, would win it all. Hope you didn't waste your money on that one. Beset by injuries, bad timing, and bad luck, the Browns not only didn't win the Super Bowl, they didn't even make the playoffs, finishing 8-9 despite beating the Bengals twice. TE David Njoku's glassy-eyed reaction to the Browns' killer, last-second loss to the Las Vegas Raiders (photo on left) in Week 15 was typical in a season in which a really talented team really struggled and just could never get over the hump.

CB2 struck out on its pick for NFC champion too as the Packers - after another excellent regular season - laid an egg in their first game in the playoffs, scoring only 10 points at home in the loss to the 49ers, their fewest ever scored in a playoff game with Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback. But despite getting a grade of 'F' for its Super Bowl pick, CB2 had one of its better years picking the regular season. Now I didn't say it was a successful year, just better than most. There were actual signs of competence.

CB2 correctly picked 5 division winners, its most ever in 14 years of doing predictions, and had the exact order of finish right for 2 divisions. CB2 picked the correct division placement for 15 teams, up from 11 for its 2020 forecast. And CB2 correctly picked the exact record for 4 teams, one more than in 2020 (It would have been 6 exactly right if the 0-8 Lions had lost to the Steelers in Week 10 like they were supposed to instead of tying them). On the down side 4 teams that the CB2 picked to finish in last place in their divisions made the playoffs. Those 4 were part of the group of 7 teams for which CB2 earned an 'F' grade (for missing its predicted record by 4 games or more). Still, that number of 7 was an improvement over the 9 F's from the 2020 predictions.

So, although CB2 won't be taking any bows, the overall 2021 report card is a little more encouraging than usual ......


AFC EAST  

         predicted            actual

1. BUF 13-4       1. BUF 11-6
2. MIA 10-7        2. NE 10-7
3. NE 7-10         3. MIA 9-8
4. NYJ 2-15       4. NYJ 4-13

Dolphins first team in 25 years to miss playoffs in a season during which they had a 7-game winning streak and first team ever to have 7-game winning streak and 7-game losing streak in same season. Patriots better than expected ..... GRADE: C ... L13Y (the grade for the last 13 years, beginning with 2020 and going back to 2008): D,C,D+,C-,C-,D,D,DC-,C,C-,B-,D

CB2 thought RB Zack Moss (left photo) would score 10 TD to lead all AFC East players with dreads and become the Bills' first player with dreads to hit double figures in TD. And that prediction was looking good after he scored 4 TD in the first 4 games. But he had just 1 more after that to finish with 5, tying for 2nd place with Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson. WR Jaylen Waddle of the Dolphins led the division's players with dreads with 7 TD ...... CB2 also liked LB Jerome Baker (right photo, celebrating after the Dolphins' 5th straight victory, over the Giants in Week 13) to tie for the league lead in sacks by players with dreads. But he finished tied for 10th place among players with dreads, with his 5.5 sacks way less than the 13 predicted. It was someone else from the AFC East who had the most sacks by any player with dreads. In his first season with the Patriots LB Matt Judon had a career high 12.5 sacks.  

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AFC NORTH

         predicted             actual

1. CLEV 11-6      1. CIN 10-7
2. BAL 10-7        2. PIT 9-7-1
3. PIT 10-7          3. CLEV 8-9
4. CIN 2-15         4. BAL 8-9

TIEBREAKER: Browns clinched 3rd place due to better record than Ravens in games vs. division opponents (CLEV 3-3, BAL 1-5)

Classic CB2. Picks Browns to win Super Bowl and they finish with losing record; picks Bengals to have worst record in the league and instead they go to the Super Bowl ..... GRADE: D+ ... L13Y: C+,D,C,C,C+,D+,C,C,C+,B-,C-,C,F

CB2 predicted that RB Kareem Hunt (photo above, scoring his 2nd TD of the season on a 29-yard run vs. the Bears in Week 3) would score 21 TD - 14 during the regular season to tie his career high and 7 more in the playoffs. Uh-uh. For the first time in his career Hunt missed games due to injury, a total of 9 games with two different injuries. He finished with 5 TD ....... CB2 also predicted DE Jadeveon Clowney (top photo below, getting 1 of his 2 sacks during the Browns' sack fest of Bears QB Justin Fields in Week 3) would score his 5th career TD sometime during the season. He did not, finishing with 2 FF but 0 FR and 0 INT ....... CB2 also suggested you put your money on RB Najee Harris to be named the NFL's offensive rookie of the year. Well, Harris (bottom photo below, finishing off his 8-yard TD run with a dive during the Steelers' Week 8 win at Cleveland) had an excellent season with 1,200 yards rushing (exactly), 467 yards receiving, and 10 TD. But he got no votes for rookie of the year. Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase (with braids not dreads) was the landslide winner ....... And CB2 saw the Steelers repeating as the AFC team with the most TD scored by players with dreads, with Harris scoring half (13) of their 26. Not quite. Instead Harris scored half of their 20 TD by players with dreads, good enough for 2nd place in the AFC. The Tennessee Titans had the most in the AFC with 24. 

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AFC SOUTH

         predicted              actual

1. TENN 14-3     1. TENN 12-5
2. IND 7-10         2. IND 9-8
3. JAC 7-10        3. HOU 4-13
4. HOU 2-15       4. JAC 3-14

2 games off for everyone except hapless Jaguars, who clinched top pick in the Draft for the 2nd year in a row. At least CB2 correctly predicted the Titans would be the #1 seed in the AFC and lose to the AFC North champion in the playoffs (but again it was the Bengals not the Browns) ..... GRADE: C- ... L13Y: C,B-,D-,D+,D,C+C,D+,D-,D,D-,D-,C-

CB2 was certain RB Derrick Henry would lead the league in rushing for the 3rd year in a row - with 1,776 yards. And he just might have if he hadn't missed the last 9 games of the regular season with the first serious injury of his career. Henry (photo above, with his dreads - as always - neatly wrapped together into one as he dives in for the game-winning 13-yard TD run vs. the Bills in Week 6) had 937 yards rushing before breaking his foot in the Week 8 game at Indianapolis. That opened the door for Jonathan Taylor of the Colts to lead the league by a mile with 1,811 yards. He averaged 106.5 yards per game, while Henry averaged a league best 117 per game ....... CB2 also predicted CB Jackrabbit Jenkins, in his first season with the Titans, would have 4 INT and return 2 of them to the house. But Jenkins (photo below, preventing teammate Breon Borders from getting an INT on a deep pass in the 4th quarter against the Bills) had only 1 INT and 0 TD and didn't play well enough to convince the Titans to bring him back for another season. 

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AFC WEST

         predicted            actual

1. KC 14-3         1. KC 12-5
2. DEN 11-6       2. LV 10-7
3. LAC 6-11       3. LAC 9-8
4. LV 3-14          4. DEN 7-10

CB2 all wrong here except for the Chiefs, who won division for the 6th straight season ..... GRADE: D   ... L13Y: C-,D+,D-,C,C,C-,C,C,D,B,A-,B,B

According to CB2, WR Jerry Jeudy was going to have the most TD catches by any AFC player with dreads, with his 10 TD helping the Broncos' clinch their first playoff berth in 6 years. But this pick was a complete whiff, as Jeudy (left photo, on the run after a catch vs. the Lions in Week 14) suffered an ankle injury in Week 1, didn't make it back until Week 8, and wasn't much of a factor after that. He never had more than 77 yards receiving in a game and scored no TD at all. Steelers WR Diontae Johnson's 8 TD catches were the most by any AFC player with dreads  ....... And also according to CB2, LB Nick Bolton (right photo, corralling RB Austin Ekeler during the Chiefs' huge road win over the Chargers in Week 15) was going to be the upset winner for NFL defensive rookie of the year. But despite his impressive season, he got no votes for the award. The voters got it right in unanimously naming Cowboys LB Micah Parsons the defensive ROY. 

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AFC TIEBRREAKERS

Titans clinched #1 seed due to head-to-head whipping of Chiefs in Week 7

Raiders clinched #5 seed due to better record than Patriots in games against common opponents (LV 5-1, NE 2-4)

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NFC EAST

          predicted             actual

1. NYG 11-6        1. DAL 12-5
2. DAL 10-7         2. PHIL 9-8
3. WASH 7-10     3. WASH 7-10
4. PHIL 5-12        4. NYG 4-13

Yes, CB2 missed Bengals pick by 8 games; but picking the sorry Giants to win the division was its worst pick. Perfect WFT pick saves the grade from much worse ..... GRADE: D+ ... L13Y: D-,C,C+,C,C,D,C+,D,D+B-,D,C,C-

CB2 expected Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb (photo below, scoring his 2nd TD of the season on a 49-yard reception vs. the Giants in Week 5) to repeat as the NFC East player with dreads with the most TD, and he did. He didn't have a choice, as nobody else had more than 2. Lamb's 6 TD were 2 less than the 8 predicted ...... And CB2 liked S Xavier McKinney to have more interceptions than any other player with dreads in the league. CB2 had that right idea here, as McKinney (photo above, returning his 1st INT of the season in the Week 6 home loss to the Rams) finished with 5 INT, 1 less than predicted. But that total was good only for 2nd place among players with dreads. Finishing 1st and leading the entire league in interceptions was CB Trevon Diggs of the Cowboys. In his amazing season Diggs had 11 INT - the most ever by a player with dreads (breaking the record of 10 set by Asante Samuel with the Patriots in 2006).

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NFC NORTH

         predicted             actual

1. GB 15-2         1. GB 13-4
2. MINN 11-6     2. MINN 8-9
3. CHI 6-11        3. CHI 6-11
4. DET 3-14       4. DET 3-13-1

CB2's highest graded division for 2021, and the best grade for this division since CB's 'B' in 2009. Only miss was Vikings, who failed to keep alive Coach Zimmer's streak of making the playoffs every other year ..... GRADE: B ... L13Y: C+,D+,D-D,C,D,D+,C-,C-B-,C,B,C-

CB was positive RB Dalvin Cook would lead the NFL in touchdowns with 22, but it was positively wrong about that. Cook surprisingly scored just 6 TD (his 2nd of the season in left photo above on a 16-yard run vs. the Panthers in Week 6), which left him tied for 54th place. In 1st place with 20 TD were two players without dreads, Austin Ekeler of the Chargers and Jonathan Taylor of the Colts ....... CB2 also was sure that for the 2nd straight year WR Davante Adams would lead all players with dreads in TD catches, and that pick was a winner; but despite a strong finish Adams (in the end zone for the 2nd time vs. the Vikings in Week 11 in right photo above) had only 11 TD receptions, 4 fewer than predicted ..... And CB2 had the Vikings edging the Packers 30-29 as the team with the most TD scored by players with dreads, denying the Packers a three-peat. Kinda close on that one. The Vikings did take team honors, finishing with 27 TD by players with dreads. The Packers finished in 3rd place with 22, and the Titans were 2nd with 24.

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NFC SOUTH

         predicted             actual

1. TB 16-1           1. TB 13-4
2. NO 10-7          2. NO 9-8
3. ATL 5-12         3. ATL 7-10
4. CAR 5-12        4. CAR 5-12

CB2 pretty much on the mark here, except Buccaneers not as dominant as expected ..... GRADE: B ... L13Y: D,D,B,C+,D+,C-,C,D,C-,D,B+,A,D

CB2 predicted that it would be WR Marquez Callaway - and not RB Alvin Kamara - leading the Saints in TD scored in 2021; but instead it was Kamara who led the team in TD for the 2nd straight season with 9, which was 1 less than CB2 expected. Callaway (photo above, in the end zone with his 2nd TD catch of the day vs. WFT in Week 5) was predicted to lead all NFC South players with dreads in TD with 11. But after being shut out the last 7 games of the season, he finished in 3rd place with only 6 TD - trailing Kamara and the surprise leader, RB Cordarrelle Patterson of the Falcons with 11 ....... CB2 also was confident DE Jason Pierre-Paul would have 13 sacks and tie Jerome Baker for the most by any player with dreads. But Pierre-Paul (photo below, celebrating his FR during the Buccaneers' big 2nd half comeback in their 2nd round playoff loss to the Rams) was not healthy for much of the season, missing 5 games and appearing on the injury report for 6 other games. He had only 2.5 sacks, his fewest since 2015, when he had only 1.

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NFC WEST

         predicted             actual

1. SF 13-4           1. LAR 12-5
2. LAR 12-5        2. ARIZ 11-6
3. SEA 9-8          3. SF 10-7
4. ARIZ 5-12       4. SEA 7-10

CB2 correctly picked Rams' exact record for 3rd year in a row, but not close on other 3 teams. Seahawks had first losing season in 10 years and first last-place finish in their division in 25 years ..... GRADE: D+ ... L13Y: D,C,F,D+,C,B-,B+,C,B+,D,D-,D,D-

Believing that CB Jason Verrett had finally shaken the injury bug after playing 13 games in 2020, CB2 boldly predicted he would tie his career high with 5 INT in 2021. But Verrett (left photo above, defending against TE T.J. Hockenson during the 49ers' road win over the Lions in Week 1) lasted only 60 snaps before the bug bit again, as he suffered a torn ACL and missed the final 16 games of the season, finishing with 0 INT ........ CB2 also expected WR Brandon Aiyuk to improve on his rookie season and finish with over 1,000 yards receiving and score 10 TD, but that didn't happen either. Aiyuk (right photo above, scoring his 3rd TD of the season on a 6-yard reception vs. the Jaguars in Week 11) finished 40th in the league with 826 yards receiving and had 5 TD catches in 17 games after having 748 yards receiving, 5 TD catches, and 7 total TD in 12 games in 2020 ........ And CB2 thought RB Darrell Henderson of the Rams would score 13 TD to lead all NFC West players with dreads. Well, he finished as the co-leader among NFC West players with dreads, scoring 8 TD, tied with WR DeAndre Hopkins of the Cardinals.

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NFC TIEBREAKERS

Packers clinched #1 seed due to better record than Buccaneers in games vs. conference opponents (GB 9-3, TB 8-4)

Cowboys clinched #3 seed due to better record than Rams in games vs. conference opponents (DAL 10-2, LAR 8-4)

Eagles clinched #7 seed due to head-to-head victory over Saints (Week 11)

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DIVISION WINNERS

As mentioned earlier CB2 had its best showing ever in this category, picking 5 of the 8 division winners correctly ..... GRADE: B- ... L13Y: C-,C-,D,D,C-,D-,C-,C-,C,C-,D,C-,F

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PLAYOFF TEAMS

AFC

       predicted        actual

1. TENN       1. TENN
2. KC            2. KC
3. BUF          3. BUF
4. CLEV        4. CIN
5. DEN          5. LV
6. MIA           6. NE
7. BAL           7. PIT

NFC

     predicted        actual

1. TB            1. GB
2. GB            2. TB
3. SF            3. DAL
4. NYG         4. LAR
5. LAR          5. ARIZ
6. MINN        6. SF
7. NO           7. PHIL

A ho-hum 7 out of 14 right ..... GRADE: C ... L13Y: B-,C-,D+,C-,C+,C-B-,C,CB,C-B-,C-

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SUPER BOWL

• predicted: CLEV over GB
• actual: LAR over CIN

GRADE: F ....... L13Y: F,A-,F,D,F,F,D,D,A,F,F,A-,F

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OVERALL GRADE

On its last report card CB2 barely missed a C-. This time it barely misses a C. Once again going back to that Lions-Steelers tie in Week 10 ...... if the Steelers (who were favored by 6 points) had won, the average of the 11 grades would have been 1.81, which would have been a C. But with the tie, the average is 1.72, and that (by .03 points on my scale) is ....... GRADE: C- .... L13Y: D+,C,D,C-,C-,D+,C,D+,C,C-,D+,B-,D

In the years that my crystal balls have gotten an F on the Super Bowl they have never graded higher than C- overall, so I really wanted that C. So close. Maybe next year.