We Taking L's

Only 9 months earlier he was shouting that the Jaguars were going to win the Super Bowl; but now during his media session following a Week 7 home loss to the Houston Texans, Jalen Ramsey, aka as the Mouth of the South, or at least the Mouth of Duval County, FL, was singing an entirely different tune. We taking L's? Say it ain't so. Unfortunately for Jaguars fans and for my crystal ball, CB2, which picked the Jaguars to win Super Bowl 53, it was very much so. Mercy, the fall of the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2018 was just as swift as their rise had been in 2017. And that was rather remarkable because the team that laid such an awful egg last season had most of the same players as the 2017 team that nearly won the AFC championship.

I gazed into CB2 and saw a picture of a smile as wide as the St. Johns River after the Jaguars defeated the New England Patriots 31-20 in their Week 2 home opener. The Patriots had dared Blake Bortles to beat them, and Blake Bortles had beaten them - to the tune of 199 yards and 3 touchdowns passing in the 1st half alone, and 376 yards and 4 TD by game's end. With a 2-0 record and with their quarterback throwing the ball like that, the Jaguars were Super Bowl bound.

Uh, not so fast. On the same field a week later came the first signs that the ship was taking on water, when they lost to the Tennessee Titans despite allowing only 9 points. And a month later, after the 20-7 loss to the Texans, even though it was just halfway through the season it was obvious the ship was in trouble and in danger of going under completely.

The loss to the Texans was the Jaguars' 3rd in a row. And although it didn't leave Ramsey at a loss for words, it did leave him at a loss for an explanation: "You're killing me man. If I had the recipe, if I knew what was going on, we would be sharing it with each other. We wouldn't continue taking L's, but I don't know. We taking L's and we gotta figure it out." Not just that once but no fewer than 11 times during that brief Q&A with the media Jalen insisted, "I don't know." (You can see a transcript of his comments on the link below if you need verification); and evidently nobody else did either because they never did figure it out and the L's kept on coming. The 3-game L streak mushroomed into a 7-game slide, and that was that for the team's playoff chances. I mean, I was too lazy to check it, but I'd bet you don't need any fingers at all to count the number of teams that won the Super Bowl in the same season they had a 7-game losing streak.
https://www.news4jax.com/sports/nfl/jaguars/what-they-said-quotes-after-the-jaguars-loss-to-the-texans

After the win over the Patriots, the Jaguars managed to score a measly 19 touchdowns in their final 14 games, giving them a league worst 25 TD for the season. They averaged 15.3 points per game - only the Arizona Cardinals scored less. And although they allowed just 19.8 points per game (4th best in the league), make no mistake the defense showed their fair share of incompetence too. I mean, what Derrick Henry did to them in Week 14 was flat out humiliating.

With the Jaguars' ship planted firmly at the bottom of the St. Johns River, that left it for somebody else to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy at season's end, and that somebody was the Patriots, of course. Whether by fair and square or by hook and crook the Patriots have now won the championship 6 times in the last 18 years (their worst record in those 18 years was 9-7). S Patrick Chung (photo on left) was one of 8 players with dreads for the Patriots celebrating after their victory over the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 53 (although he probably would have been happier had he not had to leave the game in the 3rd quarter after breaking his arm).

It was the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever, as the Patriots made mincemeat of the supposedly great Rams offense, holding them to 260 total yards, 14 first downs, and 4.3 yards per play. The Rams had averaged 421 yards in their 18 games before that. The Patriots scored only 13 points - the fewest ever by the winning team in a Super Bowl - and still won by 10 points, the largest margin of victory in their 6 Super Bowl wins. Perhaps most impressive was that this championship finally ended the long streak of Super Bowl losers not returning to the Super Bowl the following season. That streak had reached 24 years in a row until the Patriots, who lost to the Eagles in Super Bowl 52, knocked off the Rams.

Picking the Jaguars wasn't the only thing that CB2 was wrong about. Hardly. On its predictions for each team's record I had to bring out the big F for a whopping 14 of the 32 teams. That's right, CB2 missed by 4 or more games on nearly half of the NFL's 32 teams. Even with the Patriots winning the AFC East a virtual gimme every year, CB2 picked only 2 division winners correctly. And it was just 4 for 12 on its picks of playoff participants.

That being said, CB2's overall grade would have been significantly better with a little better luck in Week 17. Entering the final week of the regular season, CB2 had a chance to be exactly correct on the records of 9 teams. But as the result of the 8 games involving those 9 teams, only the Carolina Panthers (7-9) finished exactly as CB2 called it. Particularly disappointing was the nothing-to-gain Dallas Cowboys' 36-35 win over the New York Giants, achieved on WR Cole Beasley's beautiful 32-yard TD catch (that's CB B.W.Webb having a close-up view of it instead of breaking it up in the photo on the right) on 4th and 15 and subsequent successful 2-point conversion with 1:12 remaining in the game. That one cost CB2 two exact predicted records.

And the New Orleans Saints losing the NFC Championship game at home to the Rams didn't help CB2's grade either. And despite what you may have heard, the Saints really had no one to blame but themselves for the defeat. Lost in all of Coach Payton's bellyaching after the game was Coach Payton's dumb play calling, which led to the bellyaching. Did Rams CB Nickell Robey-Coleman blatantly interfere with WR Tommylee Lewis on 3rd and 10 and get away with it with 1:45 to play in the 4th quarter of a tie game? Absolutely he did. Just look at the photo of it (on the left). It's hard to believe the officials didn't make the call. But if Payton had run the ball on 3rd down (and 1st down too), the officials never would have gotten the chance to blow the call.

As you may recall the Saints had 1st and 10 at the LA 13-yard line at the 2-minute warning. If they simply run the ball three straight downs, they make the Rams use their remaining 2 timeouts; and if the three runs don't get the first down, you kick the field goal, and the Rams would get the ball with roughly a minute to go and no timeouts. But instead, thanks to incomplete passes on 1st and 3rd down, the Rams began their last-chance drive with 1:41 to play and 1 timeout left. That made it much easier for them, and they ended up sending the game into overtime. Had Payton trusted his defense instead of his offense, very likely the Saints would have been playing the Patriots in the Super Bowl instead of the Rams.

Anyway, here is the final report card for CB2's 2018 NFL forecast. It ain't pretty.


AFC EAST

   predicted          actual
1. NE 12-4         1. NE 11-5
2. NYJ 10-6       2. MIA 7-9
3. BUF 4-12       3. BUF 6-10
4. MIA 2-14       4. NYJ 4-12

Two picks kind of close, two picks kind of not close ..... GRADE: D+ ... (L10Y - the grade for each of the past 10 years, beginning with 2017 and going backward to 2018:  C-, C-, D, D, D, C-, C, C-, B-, D)

In my post titled "..... And We Gon Win That Bitch" CB2 predicted Isaiah Crowell would score a career high 9 TD in 2018, and he might have if he hadn't gone on IR for the last 3 games of the season. He finished with 6 TD in his only season with the Jets, including this 62-yard run vs. the Lions (photo above) in Week 1.
CB2 also predicted the Jets would have more TD scored by players with dreads than the other 3 AFC East teams combined, and that forecast was a bullseye. Between them the Bills, Dolphins, and Patriots had 11 TD scored by players with dreads, while the Jets had 15.
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AFC NORTH

   predicted             actual   
1. PIT 12-4         1. BAL 10-6
2. BAL 9-7         2. PIT 9-6-1
3. CIN 7-9          3. CLEV 7-8-1
4. CLEV 5-11     4. CIN 6-10

Steelers blew 2.5-game lead with 6 games to play, costing CB2 a correct division winner ..... GRADE: C ... (L10Y: C, C+, D+, C, C, C+, B-, C-, C, F)

CB2 saw Alex Collins scoring 12 TD in 2018, and he probably would have if he hadn't gone on IR for the final 5 games of the season. He finished with 8 TD in his final season with the Ravens, including this 1-yard run against the Steelers (photo above) in Week 10.
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AFC SOUTH

   predicted            actual
1. JAC 12-4        1. HOU 11-5
2. HOU 10-6      2. IND 10-6
3. IND 6-10        3. TENN 9-7
4. TENN 5-11     4. JAC 5-11

Other than Texans pick nothing to like here. Missed Jaguars by 7 games ..... GRADE: D- ... (L10Y: D+, D, C+, C, D+, D-, D, D-, D-, C-)

According to CB2 DeAndre Hopkins was supposed lead all NFL players with dreads with 15 TD catches, and the Texans were supposed to wear the crown as the team with the most TD scored by players with dreads. Hopkins ended up 3rd in TD catches by players with dreads with 11, including this 49-yarder vs. the Dolphins (photo above) in Week 8, The leader was Davante Adams with 13.
The Texans' team total of 19 TD by players with dreads was only 5th best in the league. Wearing the crown were the Chiefs with their total of 33.
Also according to CB2, Malik Hooker was supposed to lead all NFL players with dreads with 7 interceptions; but he finished with only 2, the first of which came against the Jets (photo below) in Week 6. Finishing in 1st place with 4 INT were D.J. Swearinger, Curtis Riley, and Donte Jackson.

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AFC WEST

    predicted            actual
1. LAC 11-5          1. KC 12-4
2. OAK 9-7          2. LAC 12-4
3. KC 8-8            3. DEN 6-10
4. DEN 2-14        4. OAK 4-12

TIEBREAKER: Chiefs finished in 1st place due to better record than Chargers in games against division opponents (KC 5-1, LAC 4-2)

Over the years my crystal balls have picked this division better than any other, but not this time. Chargers even better than expected but still couldn't win division, thanks to preposterous season by Patrick Mahomes ..... GRADE: D- ... (L10Y: C, C, C-, C, C, D, B, A-, B, B)

CB2 believed the Chargers' two dreadhead Melvins would stand out while helping lead the team to the division crown. And they did stand out. Melvin Gordon was voted the 34th best player in the league, and Melvin Ingram 48th best. Gordon scored 14 TD, including this 1-yard run up the middle on 3rd and goal (photo above) vs. the Raiders in Week 5, which were 2 less than the 16 CB2 predicted. But remember, Gordon missed 4 games due to injury. As predicted, Gordon's 14 TD helped the AFC West repeat as the division with the most TD scored by players with dreads. A whopping 68 TD were scored by the AFC West's players with dreads, 27 more than the next closest division.
Despite Ingram's fine season, he did not lead all NFL players with dreads with the 16 sacks that CB2 predicted. He finished tied for 9th place with just 7, including this one vs. the Raiders (photo below) in Week 5. Cameron Jordan was the leader with 12.

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AFC TIEBREAKER: Patriots clinched #2 seed due to head-to-head victory over Texans (Week 1).
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NFC EAST

    predicted            actual
1. WASH 9-7       1. DAL 10-6
2. DAL 9-7          2. PHIL 9-7
3. PHIL 8-8         3. WASH 7-9
4. NYG 6-10       4. NYG 5-11

CB2 still mourning injury to Alex Smith that ruined chance for perfect prediction .....
CB2, shedding tears: I was gonna be right.
Seriously, until Smith broke his leg in Week 11 Redskins led the division by 2 games, and all 4 teams were heading for the exact records CB2 predicted. But instead .... GRADE: C+ ... (L10Y: C, C, D, C+, D, D+, B-, D, C, C-)

CB2 liked Jay Ajayi to lead NFC East players with dreads with 7 TD. But thanks to the season-ending injury (torn ACL) he suffered in Week 5 he finished tied for 2nd with only 3 TD, the last of which was this 2-yard run vs. the Buccaneers (photo above) in Week 2. The leader was Kapri Bibbs with 4 TD.
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NFC NORTH

    predicted            actual
1. GB 11-5          1. CHI 12-4
2. MINN 11-5       2. MINN 8-7-1
3. DET 9-7          3. GB 6-9-1
4. CHI 7-9           4. DET 6-10

CB/CB2's worst ever forecast for this division. Bears figured to be better thanks to gift acquisition of Kahlil Mack; but really, 12-4?? And what happened to Green Bay? ..... GRADE: D- ... (L10Y: D, C, D, D+, C-, C-, B-, C, B, C-)

CB2 was confident that Davante Adams would score 10 TD for the 2nd straight season and that the Packers would have at least 20 TD scored by players with dreads. Not bad, CB2. Adams scored half of the Packers' TD by players with dreads. He finished with 13, including this 2-yard reception vs. the Redskins (photo above) in Week 3, and the Packers' team total of 26 TD by players with dreads led the NFC.
CB2 also was certain the Bears would finally have somebody (anybody) with dreads score an offensive touchdown; but the drought continues. It nearly ended in Week 7, but Kevin White was tackled at the 1-yard line after catching a Hail Mary pass on the final play of the game vs. the Patriots.
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NFC SOUTH 

    predicted            actual
1. NO 11-5         1. NO 13-3
2. ATL 10-6        2. ATL 7-9
3. CAR 7-9         3. CAR 7-9
4. TB 4-12          4. TB 5-11

TIEBREAKER: Falcons finished in 2nd place due to head-to-head sweep of Panthers (Weeks 2 and 16)

CB2's most accurate forecast of the 8 divisions. Actually showing some competence here. Got order of finish exactly right, and only bad pick was Falcons ..... GRADE: B ... (L10Y: C+, D+, C-, C, D, C-, D, B+, A, D)

CB2's forecast of Alvin Kamara winning league MVP was a bit overdone; but he did have another outstanding season with just under 1,600 total yards. And although he did not score the most TD by any player with dreads, he nearly nailed the 17 TD that CB2 predicted, finishing with 18, including this 1-yard run vs. the Bengals (left photo above) in Week 10. Todd Gurley had the most with 21 TD, and Patrick Mahomes was voted MVP.
However, CB2 was way off in its pick of Ronald Jones (right photo above) to lead all rookies with dreads with 7 TD. He scored just 1 TD during a very disappointing season for the Buccaneers. Josh Adams led all rookies with dreads with his 3 TD for the Eagles.
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NFC WEST

    predicted           actual
1. SF 10-6          1. LAR 13-3
2. LAR 9-7         2. SEA 10-6
3. ARIZ 9-7        3. SF 4-12
4. SEA 2-14       4. ARIZ 3-13

Mister Blutarsky ... ZERO POINT ZERO.
CB2: lol....  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5s11NAM7v
In my first year doing crystal ball predictions back in 2008 CB missed its forecast of the AFC North by an aggregate 21.5 games. That was and has been the only F grade I've given for a division forecast ... until now. Your new winner for worst division forecast ever .... CB2's picks for the 2018 NFC West, which missed by 24 games, including Seahawks by 8 games ..... GRADE: F! ... (L10Y: D+, C, B-, B+, C, B+, D, D-, D, D-)

In his first season not in a Seahawks uniform Richard Sherman (photo above) had many more discussions with game officials than he had interceptions. For the first time in his career he had 0 INT in a season, which were 3 fewer than CB2 predicted.
CB2 also was wrong about Todd Gurley. Instead of dropping from 18 TD in 2017 to 12 in 2018, Gurley increased to a league-leading 21 TD in 2018, including this 13-yard run vs. the Lions (photo below) in Week 13. At least CB2 was correct that the Rams would no longer wear the crown as the team with the most TD scored by players with dreads. Their 22 TD by players with dreads were 4th most in the league, 11 TD behind the Chiefs.

CB2 also believed Larry Fitzgerald would score 8 TD in 2018. Close, but no cigar. Larry had 6 TD receptions, including this 4-yarder vs. the Broncos (photo below) in Week 7, raising his career TD total to 116.

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NFC TIEBREAKER: Saints clinched #1 seed due to head-to-head victory over Rams (Week 9).
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DIVISION WINNERS

For the 2nd year in a row CB2 picked only 2 division winners correctly ..... GRADE: D ... (L10Y: D, C-, D-, C-, C-, C, C-. D, C-, F)
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PLAYOFF TEAMS

AFC

predicted  actual
1. JAC    1. KC
2. PIT       2. NE
3. NE        3. HOU
4. LAC     4. BAL
5. NYJ      5. LAC
6. HOU    6. IND

NFC

predicted  actual
1. NO        1. NO
2. GB        2. LAR
3. SF        3. CHI
4. WASH   4. DAL
5. MINN    5. SEA
6. ATL      6. PHIL

CB2 was correct on only 4 of the 12 teams to make the playoffs, fewest ever picked by my two crystal balls ..... GRADE: D+ ... (L10Y: C-, C+, C-, B-, C, C, B, C-, B-, C-)
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SUPER BOWL

predicted: JAC over NO
actual: NE over LAR

Saints should have made it to the Super Bowl, but that's just crying over spilled milk ..... GRADE: F ... (L10Y: D, F, F, D, D, A, F, F, A-, F)
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OVERALL GRADE

Taking the average of the 11 individual grades, the overall grade for CB2's 2018 forecast comes out to a D, the worst showing by my two CB's since 2008 ...,, (L10Y: C-, C-, D+, C, D+, C, C-, D+, B-, D)

After last year's C-,  I threatened action if there wasn't improvement ..... and that action has been taken. And we're skipping putting CB2 on regular probation and going straight to DSP. Maybe that kind of kick in the ass will urge CB2 to do better.
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I'm not including a DG section with this post. I'll do a much larger dread gallery of the 2018 season hopefully sometime before the end of the year.